EredivisiePEC Zwolle vs 
Cambuur Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 63.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.1% for over 22.5 to 41.9% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.9%. Between the two sides, PEC Zwolle are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.8%, with a level count at 5.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 41.9% | 58.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
78.3%
64.8%
50.2%
63.3%
47.1%
32.4%
Shot handicap
| PEC Zwolle line | PEC Zwolle | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| -2.5 | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| -0.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| +0.5 | 65.1% | 34.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 54.0% | 46.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
11.9Cambuur shots per game15.9Cambuur shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges PEC Zwolle.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
63.9%Over 24.5 shots64.8%PEC Zwolle over 12.5 shots47.1%Cambuur over 12.5 shots75.1%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, PEC Zwolle over 12.5 shots sits at 64.8% and Cambuur at 47.1%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 63.9% for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur.
Which team will have more shots in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
The model rates PEC Zwolle to take more shots at 59.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,773 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
