Eredivisie
For Sittard vs 
Twente Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 35.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 57.3% for over 2.5 to 8.7% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.3%. Head to head on cards, For Sittard are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.5%, with a level count at 24.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 8.7% | 91.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
45.1%
20.2%
42.8%
18.4%
Card handicap
| For Sittard line | For Sittard | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| -0.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| +0.5 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| +1.5 | 82.7% | 17.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 24.3% | 75.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8For Sittard cards per game9.0For Sittard fouls per game0.8Twente cards per game10.2Twente fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for For Sittard vs Twente. The model leans toward For Sittard for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
35.3%Over 3.5 cards11.0%Any red card45.1%For Sittard over 1.5 cards42.8%Twente over 1.5 cards37.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, For Sittard over 1.5 cards sits at 45.1% and Twente at 42.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.0% (For Sittard 7.9%, Twente 3.4%). This season For Sittard have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Twente 0.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in For Sittard vs Twente?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 35.3% for For Sittard vs Twente.
Will there be a red card in For Sittard vs Twente?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in For Sittard vs Twente?
The model rates For Sittard to pick up more cards at 39.5%, with a level count at 24.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 7,318 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
