Eredivisie
Utrecht vs 
Willem II Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 31.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 53.6% for over 2.5 to 7.0% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.6%. Between the two sides, Willem II are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.1%, with a level count at 24.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 53.6% | 46.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 31.6% | 68.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 16.0% | 84.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 7.0% | 93.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
33.1%
11.9%
48.7%
23.0%
Card handicap
| Utrecht line | Utrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.3% | 88.7% |
| -0.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| +0.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| +1.5 | 74.5% | 25.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.8% | 62.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 24.7% | 75.3% |
This season (2026/27)
2.1Utrecht cards per game17.3Utrecht fouls per game1.1Willem II cards per game9.0Willem II fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Utrecht vs Willem II. It tips Willem II for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
31.6%Over 3.5 cards6.3%Any red card33.1%Utrecht over 1.5 cards48.7%Willem II over 1.5 cards37.8%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Utrecht over 1.5 cards sits at 33.1% and Willem II at 48.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.3% (Utrecht 1.8%, Willem II 4.6%). This season Utrecht have averaged 2.1 cards a game and Willem II 1.1.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Utrecht vs Willem II?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 31.6% for Utrecht vs Willem II.
Will there be a red card in Utrecht vs Willem II?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Utrecht vs Willem II?
The model rates Willem II to pick up more cards at 48.1%, with a level count at 24.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 7,328 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
