EredivisiePEC Zwolle vs 
Cambuur Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Away at 75.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, PEC Zwolle are favoured at 42.1%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle by 1 | 20.0% |
| PEC Zwolle by 2 | 12.8% |
| PEC Zwolle by 3+ | 9.3% |
| Cambuur by 1 | 17.5% |
| Cambuur by 2 | 9.9% |
| Cambuur by 3+ | 6.0% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
Goal handicap
| PEC Zwolle line | PEC Zwolle | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.1% | 77.9% |
| -0.5 | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| +0.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| +1.5 | 84.1% | 15.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Cambuur goals scored per game2.2Cambuur goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is PEC Zwolle or Cambuur on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
63.6%Both Teams to Score61.5%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, PEC Zwolle are favoured at 42.1%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur at 75.5%.
What is the draw no bet probability in PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
With the draw taken out, the model rates PEC Zwolle at 55.7% and Cambuur at 44.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,221 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
