Ligue 1
Paris SG vs 
Le Mans Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 53.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 66.3% for over 22.5 to 29.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.9%. On the shot count, Paris SG are the model’s pick to have more shots at 71.2%, with a level count at 5.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 66.3% | 33.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 29.9% | 70.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.1%
65.7%
49.6%
48.4%
30.5%
17.1%
Shot handicap
| Paris SG line | Paris SG | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| -2.5 | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| -0.5 | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| +0.5 | 76.4% | 23.6% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 45.5% | 54.5% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
8.7 / 10.0
6.5 / 3.5
This season (2026/27)
18.8Paris SG shots per game9.5Paris SG shots faced per game8.7Paris SG first-half shots10.0Paris SG second-half shots10.3Le Mans shots per game18.0Le Mans shots faced per game6.5Le Mans first-half shots3.5Le Mans second-half shotsTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Paris SG.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
53.9%Over 24.5 shots65.7%Paris SG over 12.5 shots30.5%Le Mans over 12.5 shots69.2%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Paris SG over 12.5 shots sits at 65.7% and Le Mans at 30.5%. This season Paris SG have averaged 18.8 shots a game and Le Mans 10.3. Paris SG take 8.7 shots before half-time and 10.0 after, Le Mans 6.5 and 3.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Paris SG vs Le Mans?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 53.9% for Paris SG vs Le Mans.
Which team will have more shots in Paris SG vs Le Mans?
The model rates Paris SG to take more shots at 71.2%.
Do Paris SG shoot more in the first or second half?
Paris SG average 8.7 shots before half-time and 10.0 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
