AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
PaderbornPaderbornLDLLW
Full time0-2Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1014:30UK14°C · Rain
StuttgartStuttgartDLWLL

Paderborn 0-2 Stuttgart cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.6%

Result

Paderborn0-2Stuttgart
1 yellow cardsPaderborn 1, Stuttgart 0
0 red cardsPaderborn 0, Stuttgart 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 50.4% and it landed (1 in the match). We called No at 91.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.6%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Paderborn vs Stuttgart. It tips Stuttgart for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.7% 29.3%
3.5 cards 49.6% 50.4%
4.5 cards 30.4% 69.6%
5.5 cards 16.4% 83.7%

Who picks up more cards

Paderborn
37.6%
Level
21.7%
Stuttgart
40.6%

Team cards lines

Paderborn

Over 1.5
53.4%
Over 2.5
26.7%

Stuttgart

Over 1.5
55.6%
Over 2.5
28.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Paderborn's; Stuttgart gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Paderborn line Paderborn Stuttgart
-1.5 19.5% 80.5%
-0.5 37.6% 62.4%
+0.5 59.4% 40.6%
+1.5 78.2% 21.8%

Red card

Any red card8.6%
Paderborn red card4.8%
Stuttgart red card4.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 51.4% 48.6%
22.5 fouls 39.2% 60.8%
24.5 fouls 28.4% 71.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 49.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.7% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. Head to head on cards, Stuttgart are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.6%, with a level count at 21.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Paderborn over 1.5 cards sits at 53.4% and Stuttgart at 55.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.6% (Paderborn 4.8%, Stuttgart 4.0%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

49.6%Over 3.5 cards
8.6%Any red card
40.6%Most cards: Stuttgart
53.4%Paderborn over 1.5 cards
55.6%Stuttgart over 1.5 cards
39.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianStuttgart are the pick to collect more cards at 40.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 49.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Paderborn vs Stuttgart?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.6% for Paderborn vs Stuttgart.
Will there be a red card in Paderborn vs Stuttgart?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Paderborn vs Stuttgart?
Before kickoff, the model rated Stuttgart to pick up more cards at 40.6%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Cards

Elversberg vs Mainz cards predictionAugsburg vs Freiburg cards predictionLeverkusen vs Stuttgart cards predictionBorussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn cards predictionSchalke 04 vs RB Leipzig cards predictionWerder Bremen vs Hoffenheim cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

BundesligaPaderborn fixtures and statsStuttgart fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.