Bundesliga
Paderborn vs 
Hoffenheim Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.7% for over 2.5 to 17.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.9%. Between the two sides, Hoffenheim are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 21.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.2% | 82.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.3%
24.0%
60.2%
33.1%
Card handicap
| Paderborn line | Paderborn | Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.1% | 83.9% |
| -0.5 | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| +0.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| +1.5 | 73.7% | 26.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.2% | 69.8% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Paderborn vs Hoffenheim. It tips Hoffenheim for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
50.9%Over 3.5 cards11.3%Any red card50.3%Paderborn over 1.5 cards60.2%Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards41.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Paderborn over 1.5 cards sits at 50.3% and Hoffenheim at 60.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.3% (Paderborn 6.0%, Hoffenheim 5.7%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Paderborn vs Hoffenheim?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.9% for Paderborn vs Hoffenheim.
Will there be a red card in Paderborn vs Hoffenheim?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Paderborn vs Hoffenheim?
The model rates Hoffenheim to pick up more cards at 46.1%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,114 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
