Schalke 04 vs Elversberg prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Schalke 04 vs Elversberg: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Schalke 04

LDLLD

Sun, 20 Sep 202616:30UK18°C · Cloudy
Elversberg

WW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Schalke 04 or draw

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Schalke 04Win probability
45.8%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals82.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Schalke 04 or draw69.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.44
Over 8.5 corners63.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.58

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Schalke 04 at 46% for 20 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 63%. 2) Schalke 04 are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. 3) For shots markets, Junior Adamu is the obvious watch at 0.7 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Schalke 04 against W2 D0 L0 for Elversberg. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.3%@ 2.36
Over 11.5 corners32.9%@ 3.04
Elversberg win30.3%@ 3.29
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals61.2%@ 1.63
Draw or Elversberg54.2%@ 1.84
Over 9.5 corners52.6%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.10
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.92
1-2 correct score7.4%@ 13.55

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Schalke 04

45.8%

Draw

23.9%

Elversberg

30.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.582.9%

High probability

Over 2.561.2%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes63.0%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.2%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.6%

Good chance

Over 10.542.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.532.9%

Toss-up

Most cornersSchalke 0457.8%Elversberg31.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.571.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.560.4%

Strong chance

Over 26.548.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.536.8%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Schalke 0410.8 taken16.0 faced
Elversberg12.5 taken23.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Schalke 04 (2 games)

6.0 / 1.5

Elversberg (2 games)

6.5 / 6.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.9%2.561.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.561.2%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Schalke 04LDLLD
ElversbergWW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Schalke 04Elversberg
League position#14 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-12-0-0
Current streakD1W2
Record, home vs away0-1-01-0-0
Red cards this season10

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Junior AdamuSchalke 04 · key player
To score8.7%

@ 11.49

1+ on target37.5%

@ 2.67

2+ shots41.2%

@ 2.43

Shots/90 2.16SoT/90 0.72Goals/90 0.14
Eric Junior Dina EbimbeSchalke 04 · in form
To score12.8%

@ 7.81

1+ on target19.3%

@ 5.18

2+ shots25.5%

@ 3.92

Shots/90 2SoT/90 0.44Goals/90 0.28
Hee-Chan HwangSchalke 04 · in form
To score8.6%

@ 11.63

1+ on target18.0%

@ 5.56

2+ shots10.1%

@ 9.90

Shots/90 1.13SoT/90 0.42Goals/90 0.19

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Schalke 04 win2.21
Draw4.12
Elversberg win3.27
Both teams to score1.59

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.64
Over 3.5 goals2.57
Over 4.5 goals4.71
Schalke 04 most2.21
Elversberg most3.27

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.84
Over 10.5 corners2.35
Schalke 04 most1.73
Elversberg most3.13

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.97
Over 4.5 cards3.18
Over 5.5 cards5.85
Schalke 04 most2.70
Elversberg most2.42

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.21
Over 7.5 SoT1.36
Over 8.5 SoT1.60
Over 9.5 SoT1.97
Schalke 04 most1.87
Elversberg most2.84

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.39
Over 24.5 shots1.65
Over 26.5 shots2.07
Over 28.5 shots2.72
Schalke 04 most1.60
Elversberg most3.15

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.98
Over 22.5 fouls2.61
Over 24.5 fouls3.61
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 71.8% Over 24.5 60.4% Over 26.5 48.4% Over 28.5 36.8%
Most: Schalke 04 62.6% Most: Elversberg 31.8%
Schalke 04 Over 13.2 56.4% Elversberg Over 13.2 34.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 82.8% Over 7.5 73.3% Over 8.5 62.3% Over 9.5 50.8%
Most: Schalke 04 53.4% Most: Elversberg 35.2%
Schalke 04 Over 4.2 58.8% Elversberg Over 4.2 45.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.6% Over 3.5 50.7% Over 4.5 31.4%
Most: Schalke 04 37.1% Most: Elversberg 41.4%
Schalke 04 Over 1.8 53.7% Elversberg Over 1.8 56.9%

Schalke 04: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Junior Adamu 2.16 0.72 0.14 37.5% 41.2% 8.7%
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe 2 0.44 0.28 19.3% 25.5% 12.8%
Hee-Chan Hwang 1.13 0.42 0.19 18.0% 10.1% 8.6%
Robin Gosens 0.87 0.28 0.16 21.0% 16.7% 12.6%
Timo Becker 0.48 0.07 0 6.2% 7.2% 0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Schalke 04 clean sheet 24.2%
Elversberg clean sheet 17.3%
Schalke 04 win to nil 19.4%
Elversberg win to nil 12.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 45.2% draw 24.3% away 30.6%
double_chance
1X 69.4% 12 75.7% X2 54.9%
dnb
home 59.6% away 40.4%
btts
yes 63.0% no 37.0%
clean_sheet
home 24.4% away 17.4%
win_to_nil
home 19.7% away 12.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.7% home_by_2 13.8% home_by_3plus 10.6%
away_by_1 16.6% away_by_2 9.0% away_by_3plus 5.0%
correct_score
0-0 4.8% 0-1 5.5% 0-2 4.2%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 6.9% 1-1 11.0% 1-2 7.4%
1-3 3.5% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.5% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.0% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 3.8% 3-1 5.4% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.7% 4-1 2.3% 4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.2% under_0.5 4.8% over_1.5 82.9%
under_1.5 17.1% over_2.5 61.2% under_2.5 38.8%
over_3.5 38.9% under_3.5 61.2% over_4.5 21.2%
under_4.5 78.8% over_5.5 10.1% under_5.5 89.9%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 82.6% under_0.5 17.4% over_1.5 52.2%
under_1.5 47.8% over_2.5 25.6% under_2.5 74.4%
team_away
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.1%
under_1.5 58.9% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
most
home 45.2% draw 24.3% away 30.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.6% away_+2.5 89.4% home_-1.5 24.4%
away_+1.5 75.6% home_-0.5 45.2% away_+0.5 54.9%
home_+0.5 69.4% away_-0.5 30.6% home_+1.5 86.0%
away_-1.5 14.0% home_+2.5 95.0% away_-2.5 5.0%
total_exact
exact_0 4.8% exact_1 12.4% exact_2 21.7%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 17.6% exact_5 11.1%
exact_6 5.9% exact_7plus 4.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.1% draw 38.1% away 32.8%
total
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.1%
under_1.5 58.9% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
btts
yes 25.5% no 74.5%
total_exact
exact_0 24.4% exact_1 34.4% exact_2 24.3%
exact_3 11.4% exact_4plus 5.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.0% draw 30.6% away 41.5%
total
over_0.5 86.3% under_0.5 13.7% over_1.5 59.1%
under_1.5 40.9% over_2.5 32.1% under_2.5 68.0%
btts
yes 39.1% no 60.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.2% H/D 5.9% H/A 4.0%
D/H 10.7% D/D 11.7% D/A 15.8%
A/H 2.3% A/D 4.8% A/A 25.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.9% under_7.5 23.1% over_8.5 66.1%
under_8.5 33.9% over_9.5 54.3% under_9.5 45.7%
over_10.5 42.6% under_10.5 57.4% over_11.5 31.8%
under_11.5 68.2% over_12.5 22.7% under_12.5 77.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.8% under_3.5 22.3% over_4.5 63.6%
under_4.5 36.4% over_5.5 48.7% under_5.5 51.3%
team_away
over_3.5 61.2% under_3.5 38.8% over_4.5 44.0%
under_4.5 56.0% over_5.5 29.1% under_5.5 70.9%
most
home 57.9% draw 10.1% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.5% away_+3.5 72.5% home_-1.5 47.3%
away_+1.5 52.7% home_-0.5 57.9% away_+0.5 42.1%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+1.5 77.0%
away_-1.5 23.0% home_+3.5 89.8% away_-3.5 10.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 71.8% under_22.5 28.2% over_24.5 60.4%
under_24.5 39.6% over_26.5 48.4% under_26.5 51.6%
over_28.5 36.8% under_28.5 63.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.8% under_10.5 21.2% over_12.5 64.3%
under_12.5 35.7% over_14.5 48.4% under_14.5 51.6%
team_away
over_10.5 60.0% under_10.5 40.0% over_12.5 42.2%
under_12.5 57.9% over_14.5 26.8% under_14.5 73.2%
most
home 62.6% draw 5.6% away 31.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.6% away_+4.5 61.4% home_-2.5 50.6%
away_+2.5 49.4% home_-0.5 62.6% away_+0.5 37.4%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.8% home_+2.5 78.2%
away_-2.5 21.8% home_+4.5 86.1% away_-4.5 13.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 82.8% under_6.5 17.3% over_7.5 73.3%
under_7.5 26.7% over_8.5 62.3% under_8.5 37.7%
over_9.5 50.8% under_9.5 49.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.2% under_3.5 25.8% over_4.5 58.8%
under_4.5 41.2% over_5.5 43.3% under_5.5 56.7%
team_away
over_3.5 63.1% under_3.5 36.9% over_4.5 45.8%
under_4.5 54.2% over_5.5 30.5% under_5.5 69.5%
most
home 53.3% draw 11.4% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.8% away_+2.5 69.2% home_-0.5 53.3%
away_+0.5 46.7% home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2%
home_+2.5 83.3% away_-2.5 16.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.6% under_2.5 28.4% over_3.5 50.7%
under_3.5 49.3% over_4.5 31.4% under_4.5 68.6%
over_5.5 17.1% under_5.5 82.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.7% under_1.5 46.3% over_2.5 26.9%
under_2.5 73.1%
team_away
over_1.5 56.9% under_1.5 43.1% over_2.5 29.8%
under_2.5 70.2%
most
home 37.1% draw 21.6% away 41.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.2% away_+1.5 80.8% home_-0.5 37.1%
away_+0.5 62.9% home_+0.5 58.6% away_-0.5 41.4%
home_+1.5 77.5% away_-1.5 22.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 50.4% under_20.5 49.6% over_22.5 38.3%
under_22.5 61.7% over_24.5 27.7% under_24.5 72.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 53.7% under_9.5 46.3% over_11.5 36.5%
under_11.5 63.5% over_13.5 22.7% under_13.5 77.3%
team_away
over_9.5 56.1% under_9.5 43.9% over_11.5 38.9%
under_11.5 61.2% over_13.5 24.7% under_13.5 75.3%
most
home 45.1% draw 6.4% away 48.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.2% away_+3.5 72.8% home_-0.5 45.1%
away_+0.5 54.9% home_+2.5 64.1% away_-2.5 35.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.7% no 84.4%
home
yes 11.7% no 88.3%
away
yes 4.4% no 95.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Schalke 04 predictions · Elversberg predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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BundesligaSchalke 04ElversbergTrack record