Paderborn vs Stuttgart prediction & probabilities (2026-10-09)

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Paderborn vs Stuttgart: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Paderborn

LLDLL

Fri, 9 Oct 202601:00UK
Stuttgart

WDLWL

Model’s top convictions

88%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Draw or Stuttgart

70%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
StuttgartWin probability
53.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals87.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.14
Draw or Stuttgart74.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.34
Over 2.5 goals69.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.44

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Stuttgart at 53% against Paderborn, Bundesliga, 9 October 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 70% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 68%. • Form guide over the last six: Paderborn W0 D1 L5, Stuttgart W2 D2 L2. • Paderborn are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The recent series reads 0 wins for Paderborn, 1 draws and 1 for Stuttgart over 2 games, 1.5 goals on average. For shots markets, Rayan Philippe is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Paderborn or draw46.7%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners41.7%@ 2.40
Over 11.5 corners32.2%@ 3.11
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners52.0%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score9.1%@ 11.04
1-2 correct score9.0%@ 11.05
2-2 correct score6.8%@ 14.79

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Paderborn

25.6%

Draw

21.1%

Stuttgart

53.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.587.8%

High probability

Over 2.569.6%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes68.5%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.0%

Good chance

Over 10.541.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.2%

Toss-up

Most cornersPaderborn55.3%Stuttgart34.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.574.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.563.0%

Strong chance

Over 26.551.1%

Good chance

Over 28.539.3%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Paderborn11.8 taken16.5 faced
Stuttgart16.0 taken17.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Paderborn (3 games)

5.3 / 6.0

Stuttgart (3 games)

6.7 / 10.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.587.8%2.569.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.569.6%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

PaderbornLLDLL
StuttgartWDLWL

Last 2 meetings: Paderborn 0 · 1 draws · Stuttgart 1 · 1.5 goals/game.

2015-05-23Paderborn 1-2 Stuttgart
2014-12-20Stuttgart 0-0 Paderborn

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

PaderbornStuttgart
League position#15 of 18#14 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-21-0-2
Current streakL2L1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-2
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.85 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 59%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Rayan PhilippePaderborn · key player
To score14.9%

@ 6.71

1+ on target42.1%

@ 2.38

2+ shots38.0%

@ 2.63

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.34
Deniz UndavStuttgart · key player
To score38.5%

@ 2.60

1+ on target70.8%

@ 1.41

2+ shots84.6%

@ 1.18

Shots/90 4.26SoT/90 1.57Goals/90 0.62
Marvin PieringerPaderborn · in form
To score15.6%

@ 6.41

1+ on target37.1%

@ 2.70

2+ shots46.4%

@ 2.16

Shots/90 2.03SoT/90 0.6Goals/90 0.22
Ermedin DemirovicStuttgart · in form
To score34.4%

@ 2.91

1+ on target57.2%

@ 1.75

2+ shots55.6%

@ 1.80

Shots/90 3.01SoT/90 1.37Goals/90 0.68
Dzenan PejcinovicStuttgart · in form
To score21.7%

@ 4.61

1+ on target51.7%

@ 1.93

2+ shots53.3%

@ 1.88

Shots/90 3.14SoT/90 1.28Goals/90 0.43

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Paderborn win3.71
Draw4.57
Stuttgart win1.96
Both teams to score1.46

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.14
Over 2.5 goals1.44
Over 3.5 goals2.07
Over 4.5 goals3.42
Paderborn most3.71
Stuttgart most1.96

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.53
Over 9.5 corners1.87
Over 10.5 corners2.39
Paderborn most1.81
Stuttgart most2.93

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.42
Over 3.5 cards2.02
Over 4.5 cards3.30
Over 5.5 cards6.16
Paderborn most2.64
Stuttgart most2.48

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.30
Over 8.5 SoT1.50
Over 9.5 SoT1.80
Paderborn most1.85
Stuttgart most2.86

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.59
Over 26.5 shots1.96
Over 28.5 shots2.54
Paderborn most1.63
Stuttgart most3.03

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.95
Over 22.5 fouls2.56
Over 24.5 fouls3.53
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 74.1% Over 24.5 63.0% Over 26.5 51.1% Over 28.5 39.3%
Most: Paderborn 61.3% Most: Stuttgart 33.0%
Paderborn Over 13.2 57.3% Stuttgart Over 13.2 36.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 85.6% Over 7.5 77.0% Over 8.5 66.8% Over 9.5 55.7%
Most: Paderborn 54.0% Most: Stuttgart 34.9%
Paderborn Over 4.2 62.4% Stuttgart Over 4.2 49.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.5% Over 3.5 49.5% Over 4.5 30.3%
Most: Paderborn 37.9% Most: Stuttgart 40.3%
Paderborn Over 1.8 53.5% Stuttgart Over 1.8 55.3%

Paderborn: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Rayan Philippe 2.78 1.15 0.34 42.1% 38.0% 14.9%
Marvin Pieringer 2.03 0.6 0.22 37.1% 46.4% 15.6%

Stuttgart: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Deniz Undav 4.26 1.57 0.62 70.8% 84.6% 38.5%
Ermedin Demirovic 3.01 1.37 0.68 57.2% 55.6% 34.4%
Dzenan Pejcinovic 3.14 1.28 0.43 51.7% 53.3% 21.7%
Tiago Tomás 2.5 0.99 0.36 41.0% 38.4% 17.5%
Chris Führich 1.86 0.82 0.22 40.7% 33.2% 13.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Paderborn clean sheet 12.2%
Stuttgart clean sheet 22.0%
Paderborn win to nil 9.0%
Stuttgart win to nil 18.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 27.0% draw 21.9% away 51.1%
double_chance
1X 48.9% 12 78.1% X2 73.0%
dnb
home 34.5% away 65.5%
btts
yes 68.5% no 31.5%
clean_sheet
home 12.3% away 22.4%
win_to_nil
home 9.1% away 19.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 14.5% home_by_2 7.9% home_by_3plus 4.6%
away_by_1 20.6% away_by_2 15.5% away_by_3plus 15.1%
correct_score
0-0 3.2% 0-1 5.3% 0-2 6.1%
0-3 4.2% 0-4 2.2% 0-5 0.9%
1-0 3.7% 1-1 9.1% 1-2 9.0%
1-3 6.3% 1-4 3.3% 1-5 1.4%
2-0 3.1% 2-1 6.5% 2-2 6.8%
2-3 4.7% 2-4 2.5% 2-5 1.0%
3-0 1.5% 3-1 3.2% 3-2 3.4%
3-3 2.4% 3-4 1.2% 3-5 0.5%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.5% 4-5 0.2%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.1%
other 2.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 9.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.8% under_0.5 3.2% over_1.5 87.8%
under_1.5 12.2% over_2.5 69.6% under_2.5 30.4%
over_3.5 48.3% under_3.5 51.7% over_4.5 29.2%
under_4.5 70.8% over_5.5 15.5% under_5.5 84.5%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 77.6% under_0.5 22.4% over_1.5 44.0%
under_1.5 56.0% over_2.5 19.0% under_2.5 81.0%
team_away
over_0.5 87.7% under_0.5 12.3% over_1.5 62.0%
under_1.5 38.0% over_2.5 35.0% under_2.5 65.0%
most
home 27.0% draw 21.9% away 51.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.6% away_+2.5 95.4% home_-1.5 12.4%
away_+1.5 87.6% home_-0.5 27.0% away_+0.5 73.0%
home_+0.5 48.9% away_-0.5 51.1% home_+1.5 69.4%
away_-1.5 30.6% home_+2.5 84.9% away_-2.5 15.1%
total_exact
exact_0 3.2% exact_1 9.0% exact_2 18.2%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 19.1% exact_5 13.7%
exact_6 8.2% exact_7plus 7.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 23.2% draw 40.5% away 36.4%
total
over_0.5 71.5% under_0.5 28.5% over_1.5 35.8%
under_1.5 64.2% over_2.5 13.3% under_2.5 86.7%
btts
yes 21.2% no 78.8%
total_exact
exact_0 28.5% exact_1 35.8% exact_2 22.5%
exact_3 9.4% exact_4plus 3.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.3% draw 34.4% away 39.4%
total
over_0.5 80.7% under_0.5 19.3% over_1.5 49.0%
under_1.5 51.0% over_2.5 22.8% under_2.5 77.2%
btts
yes 30.9% no 69.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 15.5% H/D 4.9% H/A 2.8%
D/H 10.6% D/D 13.9% D/A 15.9%
A/H 2.1% A/D 5.3% A/A 29.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.4% under_7.5 23.6% over_8.5 65.5%
under_8.5 34.5% over_9.5 53.6% under_9.5 46.4%
over_10.5 41.8% under_10.5 58.2% over_11.5 31.1%
under_11.5 68.9% over_12.5 22.1% under_12.5 77.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.2% under_3.5 23.8% over_4.5 61.6%
under_4.5 38.4% over_5.5 46.4% under_5.5 53.6%
team_away
over_3.5 62.7% under_3.5 37.3% over_4.5 45.6%
under_4.5 54.4% over_5.5 30.5% under_5.5 69.5%
most
home 55.4% draw 10.4% away 34.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.1% away_+3.5 74.9% home_-1.5 44.6%
away_+1.5 55.4% home_-0.5 55.4% away_+0.5 44.6%
home_+0.5 65.8% away_-0.5 34.2% home_+1.5 75.2%
away_-1.5 24.8% home_+3.5 88.9% away_-3.5 11.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 74.1% under_22.5 25.9% over_24.5 63.0%
under_24.5 37.0% over_26.5 51.1% under_26.5 48.9%
over_28.5 39.3% under_28.5 60.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 79.6% under_10.5 20.4% over_12.5 65.2%
under_12.5 34.8% over_14.5 49.4% under_14.5 50.6%
team_away
over_10.5 62.8% under_10.5 37.2% over_12.5 45.1%
under_12.5 54.9% over_14.5 29.3% under_14.5 70.7%
most
home 61.3% draw 5.7% away 33.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.4% away_+4.5 62.6% home_-2.5 49.4%
away_+2.5 50.6% home_-0.5 61.3% away_+0.5 38.7%
home_+0.5 67.0% away_-0.5 33.0% home_+2.5 77.1%
away_-2.5 22.9% home_+4.5 85.2% away_-4.5 14.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 85.6% under_6.5 14.4% over_7.5 77.0%
under_7.5 23.0% over_8.5 66.8% under_8.5 33.2%
over_9.5 55.7% under_9.5 44.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.0% under_3.5 23.0% over_4.5 62.4%
under_4.5 37.6% over_5.5 47.1% under_5.5 52.9%
team_away
over_3.5 66.0% under_3.5 34.0% over_4.5 49.0%
under_4.5 51.0% over_5.5 33.5% under_5.5 66.5%
most
home 54.0% draw 11.1% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.9% away_+2.5 68.1% home_-0.5 54.0%
away_+0.5 46.0% home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9%
home_+2.5 83.1% away_-2.5 16.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.6% under_2.5 29.5% over_3.5 49.5%
under_3.5 50.5% over_4.5 30.3% under_4.5 69.7%
over_5.5 16.2% under_5.5 83.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.5% under_1.5 46.5% over_2.5 26.8%
under_2.5 73.3%
team_away
over_1.5 55.3% under_1.5 44.7% over_2.5 28.4%
under_2.5 71.6%
most
home 37.9% draw 21.8% away 40.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.7% away_+1.5 80.3% home_-0.5 37.9%
away_+0.5 62.1% home_+0.5 59.7% away_-0.5 40.3%
home_+1.5 78.4% away_-1.5 21.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 51.2% under_20.5 48.8% over_22.5 39.1%
under_22.5 60.9% over_24.5 28.3% under_24.5 71.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 58.9% under_9.5 41.1% over_11.5 41.8%
under_11.5 58.2% over_13.5 27.3% under_13.5 72.7%
team_away
over_9.5 51.7% under_9.5 48.3% over_11.5 34.6%
under_11.5 65.4% over_13.5 21.1% under_13.5 78.9%
most
home 52.0% draw 6.4% away 41.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.3% away_+3.5 66.7% home_-0.5 52.0%
away_+0.5 48.0% home_+2.5 70.3% away_-2.5 29.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.8% no 90.2%
home
yes 5.5% no 94.5%
away
yes 4.6% no 95.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Paderborn predictions · Stuttgart predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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