Paderborn vs Hoffenheim prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Paderborn vs Hoffenheim: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Paderborn

LLDLL

Sun, 20 Sep 202618:30UK17°C · Cloudy
Hoffenheim

WLLLW

Model’s top convictions

86%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Draw or Hoffenheim

66%

Both teams to score

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Hoffenheim46.7%

Win probability · fair 2.14

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely85.5%Fair 1.17
Draw or HoffenheimLikely69.0%Fair 1.45
Both teams to scoreLikely66.3%Fair 1.51

Model read

Our engine prices Hoffenheim at 47% for 20 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 66% with both teams to score at 66%. 2) History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 0 wins for Paderborn, 2 draws and 2 for Hoffenheim at 1.5 goals per match. 3) As a promoted side, Paderborn carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Recent form reads W0 D1 L5 for Paderborn against W2 D1 L3 for Hoffenheim. Rayan Philippe drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Hoffenheim win46.7%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners42.2%@ 2.37
Over 11.5 corners32.7%@ 3.06
Medium risk

Paderborn or draw53.3%@ 1.88
Over 9.5 corners52.6%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.1%@ 9.86
1-2 correct score9.0%@ 11.15
2-1 correct score7.3%@ 13.70

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Paderborn

31.0%

Draw

22.3%

Hoffenheim

46.7%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely85.5%Fair 1.17
Over 2.5Likely65.5%Fair 1.53
BTTS · YesLikely66.3%Fair 1.51

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.2%Fair 1.58
Over 9.5 cornersClose call52.6%Fair 1.90
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.2%Fair 2.37
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely32.7%Fair 3.06
Most cornersPaderborn55.3%Hoffenheim34.1%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely72.3%Fair 1.38
Over 24.5 shotsLikely61.0%Fair 1.64
Over 26.5 shotsClose call48.9%Fair 2.04
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely37.3%Fair 2.68

Recent shot volume

Paderborn11.8 taken16.5 faced
Hoffenheim16.8 taken13.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Paderborn (3 games)

5.3 / 6.0

Hoffenheim (3 games)

7.3 / 10.7

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.585.5%2.565.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.565.5%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

PaderbornLLDLL
HoffenheimWLLLW

Last 4 meetings: Paderborn 0 · 2 draws · Hoffenheim 2 · 1.5 goals/game.

2020-05-23Paderborn 1-1 Hoffenheim
2019-11-01Hoffenheim 3-0 Paderborn
2015-03-21Paderborn 0-0 Hoffenheim
2014-10-25Hoffenheim 1-0 Paderborn

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

PaderbornHoffenheim
League position#15 of 18#13 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-21-0-2
Current streakL2W1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.85 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 59%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Rayan PhilippePaderborn · key player
To score14.9%

@ 6.71

1+ on target42.1%

@ 2.38

2+ shots38.0%

@ 2.63

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.34
Adam HlozekHoffenheim · key player
To score26.0%

@ 3.85

1+ on target55.7%

@ 1.80

2+ shots59.3%

@ 1.69

Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.22Goals/90 0.45
Marvin PieringerPaderborn · in form
To score15.6%

@ 6.41

1+ on target37.1%

@ 2.70

2+ shots46.4%

@ 2.16

Shots/90 2.03SoT/90 0.6Goals/90 0.22
Max MoerstedtHoffenheim · in form
To score5.7%

@ 17.54

1+ on target25.4%

@ 3.94

2+ shots11.8%

@ 8.47

Shots/90 2.21SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.22
Fisnik AsllaniHoffenheim · in form
To score25.5%

@ 3.92

1+ on target57.3%

@ 1.75

2+ shots64.0%

@ 1.56

Shots/90 2.74SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.37

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Paderborn win3.21
Draw4.28
Hoffenheim win2.20
Both teams to score1.51

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.17
Over 2.5 goals1.53
Over 3.5 goals2.30
Over 4.5 goals3.99
Paderborn most3.21
Hoffenheim most2.20

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.85
Over 10.5 corners2.36
Paderborn most1.80
Hoffenheim most2.93

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.96
Over 4.5 cards3.16
Over 5.5 cards5.80
Paderborn most3.07
Hoffenheim most2.17

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.40
Over 8.5 SoT1.66
Over 9.5 SoT2.05
Paderborn most1.79
Hoffenheim most3.07

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.38
Over 24.5 shots1.64
Over 26.5 shots2.04
Over 28.5 shots2.68
Paderborn most1.64
Hoffenheim most2.99

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.88
Over 22.5 fouls2.43
Over 24.5 fouls3.31
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 72.3% Over 24.5 61.0% Over 26.5 48.9% Over 28.5 37.2%
Most: Paderborn 60.8% Most: Hoffenheim 33.4%
Paderborn Over 13.2 55.5% Hoffenheim Over 13.2 35.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.5% Over 7.5 71.6% Over 8.5 60.4% Over 9.5 48.8%
Most: Paderborn 56.0% Most: Hoffenheim 32.6%
Paderborn Over 4.2 59.2% Hoffenheim Over 4.2 42.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.7% Over 3.5 50.9% Over 4.5 31.6%
Most: Paderborn 32.6% Most: Hoffenheim 46.1%
Paderborn Over 1.8 50.3% Hoffenheim Over 1.8 60.2%

Paderborn: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Rayan Philippe 2.78 1.15 0.34 42.1% 38.0% 14.9%
Marvin Pieringer 2.03 0.6 0.22 37.1% 46.4% 15.6%

Hoffenheim: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Adam Hlozek 2.99 1.22 0.45 55.7% 59.3% 26.0%
Max Moerstedt 2.21 1.1 0.22 25.4% 11.8% 5.7%
Fisnik Asllani 2.74 1.07 0.37 57.3% 64.0% 25.5%
Andrej Kramaric 2.34 1.01 0.39 55.8% 56.4% 27.1%
Tim Lemperle 2.47 0.95 0.37 52.4% 57.5% 25.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Paderborn clean sheet 15.5%
Hoffenheim clean sheet 21.8%
Paderborn win to nil 11.6%
Hoffenheim win to nil 17.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 31.1% draw 23.4% away 45.5%
double_chance
1X 54.5% 12 76.6% X2 68.9%
dnb
home 40.6% away 59.3%
btts
yes 66.3% no 33.7%
clean_sheet
home 15.6% away 22.0%
win_to_nil
home 11.7% away 18.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.4% home_by_2 9.2% home_by_3plus 5.6%
away_by_1 20.2% away_by_2 13.9% away_by_3plus 11.4%
correct_score
0-0 3.9% 0-1 5.9% 0-2 5.9%
0-3 3.7% 0-4 1.7% 0-5 0.6%
1-0 4.7% 1-1 10.1% 1-2 9.0%
1-3 5.6% 1-4 2.6% 1-5 1.0%
2-0 3.9% 2-1 7.3% 2-2 6.8%
2-3 4.2% 2-4 2.0% 2-5 0.7%
3-0 2.0% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 3.4%
3-3 2.1% 3-4 1.0% 3-5 0.4%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.1% under_0.5 3.9% over_1.5 85.5%
under_1.5 14.5% over_2.5 65.5% under_2.5 34.5%
over_3.5 43.5% under_3.5 56.5% over_4.5 25.1%
under_4.5 74.9% over_5.5 12.6% under_5.5 87.4%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 78.0% under_0.5 22.0% over_1.5 44.7%
under_1.5 55.3% over_2.5 19.5% under_2.5 80.5%
team_away
over_0.5 84.4% under_0.5 15.6% over_1.5 55.4%
under_1.5 44.6% over_2.5 28.5% under_2.5 71.5%
most
home 31.1% draw 23.4% away 45.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.6% away_+2.5 94.4% home_-1.5 14.8%
away_+1.5 85.2% home_-0.5 31.1% away_+0.5 68.9%
home_+0.5 54.5% away_-0.5 45.5% home_+1.5 74.7%
away_-1.5 25.3% home_+2.5 88.6% away_-2.5 11.4%
total_exact
exact_0 3.9% exact_1 10.6% exact_2 20.0%
exact_3 21.9% exact_4 18.5% exact_5 12.5%
exact_6 7.0% exact_7plus 5.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 23.6% draw 38.9% away 37.5%
total
over_0.5 73.8% under_0.5 26.2% over_1.5 38.7%
under_1.5 61.3% over_2.5 15.2% under_2.5 84.8%
btts
yes 23.2% no 76.8%
total_exact
exact_0 26.2% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 10.5% exact_4plus 4.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.1% draw 37.5% away 29.5%
total
over_0.5 76.6% under_0.5 23.4% over_1.5 42.6%
under_1.5 57.4% over_2.5 17.9% under_2.5 82.1%
btts
yes 26.6% no 73.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 17.9% H/D 4.1% H/A 1.6%
D/H 12.9% D/D 14.6% D/A 11.5%
A/H 2.8% A/D 6.6% A/A 28.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.9% under_7.5 23.1% over_8.5 66.0%
under_8.5 34.0% over_9.5 54.2% under_9.5 45.8%
over_10.5 42.4% under_10.5 57.6% over_11.5 31.7%
under_11.5 68.3% over_12.5 22.5% under_12.5 77.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.5% under_3.5 23.5% over_4.5 62.0%
under_4.5 38.0% over_5.5 46.9% under_5.5 53.2%
team_away
over_3.5 63.1% under_3.5 36.9% over_4.5 46.0%
under_4.5 54.0% over_5.5 30.9% under_5.5 69.2%
most
home 55.5% draw 10.4% away 34.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.2% away_+3.5 74.8% home_-1.5 44.7%
away_+1.5 55.3% home_-0.5 55.5% away_+0.5 44.6%
home_+0.5 65.9% away_-0.5 34.2% home_+1.5 75.1%
away_-1.5 24.9% home_+3.5 88.8% away_-3.5 11.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.3% under_22.5 27.7% over_24.5 61.0%
under_24.5 39.0% over_26.5 48.9% under_26.5 51.1%
over_28.5 37.3% under_28.5 62.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.3% under_10.5 21.7% over_12.5 63.5%
under_12.5 36.5% over_14.5 47.5% under_14.5 52.5%
team_away
over_10.5 61.7% under_10.5 38.3% over_12.5 43.9%
under_12.5 56.1% over_14.5 28.3% under_14.5 71.7%
most
home 60.9% draw 5.7% away 33.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.8% away_+4.5 63.2% home_-2.5 48.8%
away_+2.5 51.2% home_-0.5 60.9% away_+0.5 39.2%
home_+0.5 66.6% away_-0.5 33.4% home_+2.5 76.9%
away_-2.5 23.2% home_+4.5 85.1% away_-4.5 14.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.5% under_6.5 18.5% over_7.5 71.6%
under_7.5 28.4% over_8.5 60.4% under_8.5 39.6%
over_9.5 48.8% under_9.5 51.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.5% under_3.5 25.5% over_4.5 59.2%
under_4.5 40.8% over_5.5 43.7% under_5.5 56.3%
team_away
over_3.5 59.9% under_3.5 40.1% over_4.5 42.3%
under_4.5 57.7% over_5.5 27.3% under_5.5 72.7%
most
home 56.0% draw 11.4% away 32.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.0% away_+2.5 67.0% home_-0.5 56.0%
away_+0.5 44.0% home_+0.5 67.4% away_-0.5 32.6%
home_+2.5 85.2% away_-2.5 14.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.7% under_2.5 28.3% over_3.5 50.9%
under_3.5 49.1% over_4.5 31.6% under_4.5 68.4%
over_5.5 17.2% under_5.5 82.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 50.3% under_1.5 49.7% over_2.5 24.0%
under_2.5 76.0%
team_away
over_1.5 60.2% under_1.5 39.8% over_2.5 33.1%
under_2.5 66.9%
most
home 32.6% draw 21.3% away 46.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.1% away_+1.5 83.9% home_-0.5 32.6%
away_+0.5 67.4% home_+0.5 53.9% away_-0.5 46.1%
home_+1.5 73.7% away_-1.5 26.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 53.3% under_20.5 46.7% over_22.5 41.2%
under_22.5 58.8% over_24.5 30.2% under_24.5 69.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 48.5% under_9.5 51.5% over_11.5 31.5%
under_11.5 68.5% over_13.5 18.7% under_13.5 81.3%
team_away
over_9.5 64.4% under_9.5 35.6% over_11.5 47.7%
under_11.5 52.3% over_13.5 32.6% under_13.5 67.4%
most
home 35.5% draw 6.1% away 58.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 19.8% away_+3.5 80.2% home_-0.5 35.5%
away_+0.5 64.5% home_+2.5 54.3% away_-2.5 45.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.3% no 88.7%
home
yes 6.0% no 94.0%
away
yes 5.7% no 94.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Paderborn predictions · Hoffenheim predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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