Bundesliga
Stuttgart vs 
Dortmund Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.3% for over 2.5 to 16.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.1%. Head to head on cards, Dortmund are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.0% | 84.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.1%
24.6%
57.1%
30.1%
Card handicap
| Stuttgart line | Stuttgart | Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| -0.5 | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| +0.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| +1.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.4% | 69.6% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Stuttgart vs Dortmund. The model leans toward Dortmund for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.1%Over 3.5 cards16.2%Any red card51.1%Stuttgart over 1.5 cards57.1%Dortmund over 1.5 cards41.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Stuttgart over 1.5 cards sits at 51.1% and Dortmund at 57.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.2% (Stuttgart 6.3%, Dortmund 10.5%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Stuttgart vs Dortmund?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.1% for Stuttgart vs Dortmund.
Will there be a red card in Stuttgart vs Dortmund?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Stuttgart vs Dortmund?
The model rates Dortmund to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.