Bundesliga
Ein Frankfurt vs 
Freiburg Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.8% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.7%. Head to head on cards, Ein Frankfurt are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 21.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.8% | 29.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.4% | 83.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.1%
28.2%
54.1%
27.2%
Card handicap
| Ein Frankfurt line | Ein Frankfurt | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.2% | 78.8% |
| -0.5 | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| +0.5 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| +1.5 | 79.9% | 20.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.5% | 73.5% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg. The model leans toward Ein Frankfurt for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.7%Over 3.5 cards12.1%Any red card55.1%Ein Frankfurt over 1.5 cards54.1%Freiburg over 1.5 cards37.0%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Ein Frankfurt over 1.5 cards sits at 55.1% and Freiburg at 54.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.1% (Ein Frankfurt 8.1%, Freiburg 4.4%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.7% for Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg.
Will there be a red card in Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg?
The model rates Ein Frankfurt to pick up more cards at 39.9%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.