Bundesliga
M'gladbach vs 
Mainz Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.1% for over 2.5 to 20.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.2%. Head to head on cards, Mainz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 20.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.3% | 79.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.9%
29.0%
60.7%
33.7%
Card handicap
| M'gladbach line | M'gladbach | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| -0.5 | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| +0.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| +1.5 | 75.8% | 24.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.6% | 70.4% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for M'gladbach vs Mainz. Slightly more cards are projected for Mainz for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.2%Over 3.5 cards12.3%Any red card55.9%M'gladbach over 1.5 cards60.7%Mainz over 1.5 cards40.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, M'gladbach over 1.5 cards sits at 55.9% and Mainz at 60.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.3% (M'gladbach 5.1%, Mainz 7.5%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in M'gladbach vs Mainz?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 55.2% for M'gladbach vs Mainz.
Will there be a red card in M'gladbach vs Mainz?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in M'gladbach vs Mainz?
The model rates Mainz to pick up more cards at 43.0%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.