Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs 
Union Berlin Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.8% for over 2.5 to 15.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.6%. Head to head on cards, Union Berlin are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.6% | 84.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.6%
24.2%
56.8%
29.8%
Card handicap
| Bayern Munich line | Bayern Munich | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.5% | 82.5% |
| -0.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| +0.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| +1.5 | 76.3% | 23.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 43.1% | 57.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 21.6% | 78.4% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin. It tips Union Berlin for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
48.6%Over 3.5 cards13.0%Any red card50.6%Bayern Munich over 1.5 cards56.8%Union Berlin over 1.5 cards31.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Bayern Munich over 1.5 cards sits at 50.6% and Union Berlin at 56.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.0% (Bayern Munich 6.1%, Union Berlin 7.4%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.6% for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin.
Will there be a red card in Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
The model rates Union Berlin to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.