La Liga
Osasuna vs 
Vallecano Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 48.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.1% for over 7.5 to 18.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.2%. Between the two sides, Osasuna are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.4%, with a level count at 10.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 8.5 corners | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.7% | 81.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.3%
60.3%
45.0%
58.4%
40.9%
26.3%
Corner handicap
| Osasuna line | Osasuna | Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| -1.5 | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| -0.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| +0.5 | 67.9% | 32.1% |
This season (2026/27)
3.4Osasuna corners won per game4.0Osasuna corners conceded per game6.0Vallecano corners won per game6.8Vallecano corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Osasuna.
In-depth analysis
49.2%Over 9.5 corners60.3%Osasuna over 4.5 corners40.9%Vallecano over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Osasuna over 4.5 corners sits at 60.3% and Vallecano at 40.9%. This season Osasuna have averaged 3.4 corners won a game and Vallecano 6.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Osasuna vs Vallecano?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 49.2% for Osasuna vs Vallecano.
Which team will win the corner count in Osasuna vs Vallecano?
The model rates Osasuna to win the corner count at 57.4%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Osasuna and Vallecano average this season?
Osasuna have won 3.4 corners a game this season and Vallecano 6.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,617 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
