AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
NorthamptonNorthamptonLLDWL
Full time2-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:30UK
ColchesterColchesterDDLDD

Northampton 2-0 Colchester cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.5%

Result

Northampton2-0Colchester
3 yellow cardsNorthampton 2, Colchester 1
0 red cardsNorthampton 0, Colchester 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 51.5% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 85.3% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Scott Jackson

Recorded match referee.

Scott Jackson in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 40 4
Goals 2.62 Not available
Yellow cards 4.22 Not available
Red cards 0.12 Not available
Corners 9.8 Not available
Fouls 22.4 Not available
Both teams scored 50% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 53% Not available
Home wins 35% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Northampton vs Colchester 2-0 2 No 3 0 9 25
17 Oct 2026 Salford vs Crawley Town 2-1 3 Yes 0 0 9 23
19 Sep 2026 Barnet vs Fleetwood Town 3-1 4 Yes 4 1 11 39
22 Aug 2026 Exeter vs Accrington 2-0 2 No 5 0 10 25
2 May 2026 Bromley vs Walsall 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 16 13
3 Apr 2026 Colchester vs Oldham 1-3 4 Yes 3 0 9 26
7 Mar 2026 Walsall vs Notts County 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 7 26
28 Feb 2026 Fleetwood Town vs Newport County 0-0 0 No 2 0 10 14
29 Dec 2025 Chesterfield vs Cambridge 0-1 1 No 5 0 10 14
20 Sep 2025 Milton Keynes Dons vs Accrington 1-2 3 Yes 5 1 8 21

Scott Jackson referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Northampton vs Colchester. The model leans toward Colchester for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.2% 27.8%
3.5 cards 51.5% 48.5%
4.5 cards 32.1% 67.9%
5.5 cards 17.6% 82.4%

Who picks up more cards

Northampton
35.2%
Level
21.4%
Colchester
43.4%

Team cards lines

Northampton

Over 1.5
52.8%
Over 2.5
26.1%

Colchester

Over 1.5
58.7%
Over 2.5
31.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Northampton's; Colchester gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Northampton line Northampton Colchester
-1.5 18.0% 82.0%
-0.5 35.2% 64.8%
+0.5 56.6% 43.4%
+1.5 75.9% 24.2%

Red card

Any red card14.7%
Northampton red card8.3%
Colchester red card7.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.8% 26.2%
22.5 fouls 59.6% 40.4%
24.5 fouls 44.5% 55.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 51.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.2% for over 2.5 to 17.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.5%. On the card count, Colchester are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.4%, with a level count at 21.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Northampton over 1.5 cards sits at 52.8% and Colchester at 58.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.7% (Northampton 8.3%, Colchester 7.0%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

51.5%Over 3.5 cards
14.7%Any red card
43.4%Most cards: Colchester
52.8%Northampton over 1.5 cards
58.7%Colchester over 1.5 cards
59.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.7%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianColchester are the pick to collect more cards at 43.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 51.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Northampton vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.5% for Northampton vs Colchester.
Will there be a red card in Northampton vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Northampton vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated Colchester to pick up more cards at 43.4%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoNorthampton fixtures and statsColchester fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.