AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
NorthamptonNorthamptonLLDWL
Full time2-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:30UK
ColchesterColchesterDDLDD

Northampton 2-0 Colchester corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined50.9%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined49.1%

Result

Northampton2-0Colchester
9 cornersNorthampton 7, Colchester 2
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 50.9% and it missed (9 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners50.9%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Northampton.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 73.9% 26.1%
8.5 corners 62.7% 37.3%
9.5 corners 50.9% 49.1%
10.5 corners 39.4% 60.6%
11.5 corners 29.2% 70.8%
12.5 corners 20.7% 79.3%

Who wins the corner count

Northampton
56.9%
Level
10.4%
Colchester
32.7%

Team corners lines

Northampton

Over 3.5
75.4%
Over 4.5
60.8%
Over 5.5
45.8%

Colchester

Over 3.5
59.7%
Over 4.5
42.5%
Over 5.5
28.0%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Northampton's; Colchester gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Northampton line Northampton Colchester
-3.5 26.1% 73.9%
-1.5 46.0% 54.0%
-0.5 56.9% 43.1%
+0.5 67.3% 32.7%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 50.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.9% for over 7.5 to 20.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.9%. Between the two sides, Northampton are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.9%, with a level count at 10.4%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

50.9%Over 9.5 corners
56.9%Most corners: Northampton
60.8%Northampton over 4.5 corners
42.5%Colchester over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

For the team lines, Northampton over 4.5 corners sits at 60.8% and Colchester at 42.5%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.9% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderNorthampton are the pick to win the corner count at 56.9%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 50.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Northampton vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 50.9% for Northampton vs Colchester.
Which team will win the corner count in Northampton vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated Northampton to win the corner count at 56.9%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More League Two, Corners

Newport County vs Chesterfield corners predictionGrimsby vs York corners predictionPort Vale vs Rochdale corners predictionAccrington vs Northampton corners predictionColchester vs Walsall corners predictionCrewe vs Barnet corners prediction

Corner predictions today

Related

League TwoNorthampton fixtures and statsColchester fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.