AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
NijmegenNijmegenDLDDD
Full time2-2Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1013:30UK
GroningenGroningenDDWWL

NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Groningen cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined36.6%

Result

Nijmegen2-2Groningen
3 yellow cardsNijmegen 0, Groningen 3
0 red cardsNijmegen 0, Groningen 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 63.4% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 93.3% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards36.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Martin Van den Kerkhof

Recorded match referee.

Martin Van den Kerkhof in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 20 6
Goals 3.60 3.67
Yellow cards 2.35 2.67
Red cards 0.15 0.17
Corners 9.9 11.2
Fouls 19.9 21.2
Both teams scored 75% 83%
Over 2.5 goals 85% 83%
Home wins 40% 50%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Nijmegen vs Groningen 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 13 22
17 Oct 2026 Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven 2-1 3 Yes 5 1 5 29
18 Sep 2026 Groningen vs Zwolle 3-0 3 No 2 0 11 18
11 Sep 2026 AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 13 15
8 Sep 2026 Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles 3-3 6 Yes 3 0 12 24
15 Aug 2026 For Sittard vs Cambuur 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 13 19
10 May 2026 Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven 1-4 5 Yes 0 0 12 16
11 Apr 2026 Heracles vs Ajax 0-3 3 No 2 1 12 14
22 Mar 2026 Nijmegen vs Heerenveen 2-2 4 Yes 0 0 8 17
8 Mar 2026 Sparta Rotterdam vs Zwolle 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 9 17

Martin Van den Kerkhof referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Nijmegen vs Groningen. Slightly more cards are projected for Groningen for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 58.7% 41.3%
3.5 cards 36.6% 63.4%
4.5 cards 19.6% 80.4%
5.5 cards 9.2% 90.8%

Who picks up more cards

Nijmegen
27.1%
Level
23.0%
Groningen
49.9%

Team cards lines

Nijmegen

Over 1.5
35.9%
Over 2.5
13.6%

Groningen

Over 1.5
53.3%
Over 2.5
26.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Nijmegen's; Groningen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Nijmegen line Nijmegen Groningen
-1.5 11.4% 88.6%
-0.5 27.1% 72.9%
+0.5 50.1% 49.9%
+1.5 72.3% 27.7%

Red card

Any red card6.7%
Nijmegen red card3.4%
Groningen red card3.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 57.6% 42.4%
22.5 fouls 42.2% 57.8%
24.5 fouls 28.4% 71.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Nijmegen A. Lindhout 2 3.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

NijmegenNijmegen

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Nijmegen at home and Groningen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GroningenGroningen
Statistic
Nijmegen
Groningen
Yellow cards per game
·
1.0

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
0.8

Matches with card data
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 36.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 58.7% for over 2.5 to 9.2% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.7%. Between the two sides, Groningen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.9%, with a level count at 23.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Nijmegen over 1.5 cards sits at 35.9% and Groningen at 53.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.7% (Nijmegen 3.4%, Groningen 3.4%). Nijmegen’s most frequent referee this season, A. Lindhout, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

36.6%Over 3.5 cards
6.7%Any red card
49.9%Most cards: Groningen
35.9%Nijmegen over 1.5 cards
53.3%Groningen over 1.5 cards
42.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 36.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA. Lindhout, Nijmegen’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 6.7%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianGroningen are the pick to collect more cards at 49.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.

FAQ

How many cards in Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 36.6% for Nijmegen vs Groningen.
Will there be a red card in Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 6.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Before kickoff, the model rated Groningen to pick up more cards at 49.9%, with a level count at 23.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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EredivisieNEC Nijmegen fixtures and statsGroningen fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.