Alverca vs Rio Ave: model prediction
Primeira Liga
AlvercaDLDLW
Rio AveLWLLD
Over 1.5 goals
Alverca or draw
Both teams to score
Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.021 <= 0.
Win probability · fair 2.10
Top signals
Model read
"48% on Alverca is a measurement, not a promise." A measured edge to Alverca: 48% is the model's line for this Primeira Liga meeting on 19 September 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Alverca higher (51%) than our model does. Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. Schedule edge: Alverca have had 3 more days of rest than Rio Ave. The recent series reads 1 wins for Alverca, 1 draws and 0 for Rio Ave over 2 games, 2.5 goals on average. Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Alverca against W1 D1 L4 for Rio Ave. The engine passes on this one (conservative EV -0.021 <= 0).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
47.7%-3.3%
26.1%-0.2%
26.2%+3.5%
conservative EV -0.021 <= 0
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.021 <= 0.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alverca 1 · 1 draws · Rio Ave 0 · 2.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
AlvercaRio Ave66.7%57.1%
83.3%28.6%
0.0%14.3%
League averages this season: 2.87 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 59% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 53.4% | Over 24.5 | 41.2% | Over 26.5 | 30.2% | Over 28.5 | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 60.0% | Most: Rio Ave | 34.0% | ||||
| Alverca Over 13.2 | 41.2% | Rio Ave Over 13.2 | 23.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 67.6% | Over 7.5 | 54.5% | Over 8.5 | 41.6% | Over 9.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 48.8% | Most: Rio Ave | 37.9% | ||||
| Alverca Over 4.2 | 41.5% | Rio Ave Over 4.2 | 33.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 80.6% | Over 3.5 | 62.7% | Over 4.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 35.1% | Most: Rio Ave | 45.3% | ||
| Alverca Over 1.8 | 60.1% | Rio Ave Over 1.8 | 66.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Alverca clean sheet | 32.3% |
|---|---|
| Rio Ave clean sheet | 20.2% |
| Alverca win to nil | 25.1% |
| Rio Ave win to nil | 13.1% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 47.7% | draw | 26.1% | away | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 73.8% | 12 | 74.0% | X2 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 64.5% | away | 35.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 54.4% | no | 45.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 32.5% | away | 20.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 25.3% | away | 13.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.6% | home_by_2 | 14.7% | home_by_3plus | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.8% | away_by_2 | 7.3% | away_by_3plus | 3.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.2% | 0-1 | 6.8% | 0-2 | 4.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.6% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | 1-1 | 12.4% | 1-2 | 6.6% |
| 1-3 | 2.5% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 2-1 | 9.4% | 2-2 | 5.3% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.5% | 3-1 | 5.0% | 3-2 | 2.8% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 4-1 | 2.0% | 4-2 | 1.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.6% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.8% | under_0.5 | 7.2% | over_1.5 | 76.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.9% | over_2.5 | 51.2% | under_2.5 | 48.8% |
| over_3.5 | 29.1% | under_3.5 | 70.9% | over_4.5 | 14.0% |
| under_4.5 | 86.0% | over_5.5 | 5.9% | under_5.5 | 94.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 79.7% | under_0.5 | 20.3% | over_1.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.6% | over_2.5 | 21.6% | under_2.5 | 78.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.5% | under_0.5 | 32.5% | over_1.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.0% | over_2.5 | 10.5% | under_2.5 | 89.5% |
most
| home | 47.7% | draw | 26.1% | away | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.4% | away_+2.5 | 89.6% | home_-1.5 | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 74.9% | home_-0.5 | 47.7% | away_+0.5 | 52.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.8% | away_-0.5 | 26.3% | home_+1.5 | 89.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.5% | home_+2.5 | 96.8% | away_-2.5 | 3.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.2% | exact_1 | 16.7% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 15.0% | exact_5 | 8.2% |
| exact_6 | 3.7% | exact_7plus | 2.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.4% | draw | 42.8% | away | 17.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.1% | under_0.5 | 32.9% | over_1.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.4% | over_2.5 | 10.2% | under_2.5 | 89.8% |
btts
| yes | 16.6% | no | 83.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.9% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.5% | exact_4plus | 2.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.3% | draw | 35.1% | away | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.8% | under_0.5 | 20.2% | over_1.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.5% | over_2.5 | 21.7% | under_2.5 | 78.3% |
btts
| yes | 30.0% | no | 70.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 31.1% | H/D | 5.9% | H/A | 2.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.0% | D/D | 15.0% | D/A | 11.8% |
| A/H | 2.0% | A/D | 3.8% | A/A | 11.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 66.5% | under_7.5 | 33.5% | over_8.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 45.2% | over_9.5 | 43.4% | under_9.5 | 56.7% |
| over_10.5 | 32.8% | under_10.5 | 67.2% | over_11.5 | 23.9% |
| under_11.5 | 76.1% | over_12.5 | 16.7% | under_12.5 | 83.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.3% | under_3.5 | 28.7% | over_4.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.1% | over_5.5 | 42.8% | under_5.5 | 57.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.2% | under_3.5 | 48.8% | over_4.5 | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.0% | over_5.5 | 22.3% | under_5.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 59.2% | draw | 10.0% | away | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.9% | away_+3.5 | 71.1% | home_-1.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.4% | home_-0.5 | 59.2% | away_+0.5 | 40.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.1% | away_-0.5 | 30.9% | home_+1.5 | 77.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.1% | home_+3.5 | 90.3% | away_-3.5 | 9.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 53.4% | under_22.5 | 46.6% | over_24.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 58.8% | over_26.5 | 30.2% | under_26.5 | 69.9% |
| over_28.5 | 20.9% | under_28.5 | 79.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.7% | under_10.5 | 34.3% | over_12.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.8% | over_14.5 | 33.8% | under_14.5 | 66.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 47.6% | under_10.5 | 52.4% | over_12.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.3% | over_14.5 | 18.0% | under_14.5 | 82.0% |
most
| home | 60.0% | draw | 6.0% | away | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.3% | away_+4.5 | 64.7% | home_-2.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.5% | home_-0.5 | 60.0% | away_+0.5 | 40.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.0% | away_-0.5 | 34.0% | home_+2.5 | 76.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.3% | home_+4.5 | 85.2% | away_-4.5 | 14.8% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 67.6% | under_6.5 | 32.4% | over_7.5 | 54.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.5% | over_8.5 | 41.6% | under_8.5 | 58.4% |
| over_9.5 | 30.0% | under_9.5 | 70.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 59.5% | under_3.5 | 40.5% | over_4.5 | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.5% | over_5.5 | 26.4% | under_5.5 | 73.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.9% | under_3.5 | 48.1% | over_4.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.2% | over_5.5 | 19.9% | under_5.5 | 80.1% |
most
| home | 48.8% | draw | 13.3% | away | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.2% | away_+2.5 | 75.8% | home_-0.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.2% | home_+0.5 | 62.1% | away_-0.5 | 37.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.6% | away_-2.5 | 16.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 80.6% | under_2.5 | 19.4% | over_3.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 37.3% | over_4.5 | 43.4% | under_4.5 | 56.6% |
| over_5.5 | 26.8% | under_5.5 | 73.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 60.1% | under_1.5 | 39.9% | over_2.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.9% | under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.6% |
most
| home | 35.1% | draw | 19.7% | away | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.9% | away_+1.5 | 81.1% | home_-0.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.9% | home_+0.5 | 54.7% | away_-0.5 | 45.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.1% | away_-1.5 | 26.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 79.3% | under_20.5 | 20.7% | over_22.5 | 68.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 31.9% | over_24.5 | 55.4% | under_24.5 | 44.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.2% | under_9.5 | 20.8% | over_11.5 | 62.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.4% | over_13.5 | 44.7% | under_13.5 | 55.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 74.0% | under_9.5 | 26.0% | over_11.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 44.2% | over_13.5 | 37.6% | under_13.5 | 62.4% |
most
| home | 51.7% | draw | 6.5% | away | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.6% | away_+3.5 | 67.4% | home_-0.5 | 51.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.3% | home_+2.5 | 70.5% | away_-2.5 | 29.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.0% | no | 86.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.7% | no | 94.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.8% | no | 91.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Alverca predictions · Rio Ave predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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