Primeira Liga
Nacional vs 
Famalicao Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 44.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 57.0% for over 22.5 to 23.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.9%. On the shot count, Nacional are the model’s pick to have more shots at 56.3%, with a level count at 6.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.6% | 66.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.8% | 76.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
65.7%
49.2%
33.8%
53.0%
35.9%
22.1%
Shot handicap
| Nacional line | Nacional | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
| -2.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| -0.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| +0.5 | 62.3% | 37.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 31.3% | 68.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
10.5Nacional shots per game15.7Nacional shots faced per game9.2Famalicao shots per game12.0Famalicao shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Nacional.
In-depth analysis
44.9%Over 24.5 shots49.2%Nacional over 12.5 shots35.9%Famalicao over 12.5 shots56.0%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Nacional over 12.5 shots sits at 49.2% and Famalicao at 35.9%. This season Nacional have averaged 10.5 shots a game and Famalicao 9.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Nacional vs Famalicao?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 44.9% for Nacional vs Famalicao.
Which team will have more shots in Nacional vs Famalicao?
The model rates Nacional to take more shots at 56.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
