AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
MarseilleMarseilleLLLWW
Full time4-3Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1016:15UK19°C · Clear
Le HavreLe HavreLDLLL

Marseille 4-3 Le Havre cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.4%

Result

Marseille4-3Le Havre
4 yellow cardsMarseille 1, Le Havre 3
0 red cardsMarseille 0, Le Havre 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 50.6% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 78.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards50.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Clement Turpin

Recorded match referee.

Clement Turpin in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 22 4
Goals 3.14 Not available
Yellow cards 3.09 Not available
Red cards 0.14 Not available
Corners 9.3 Not available
Fouls 23.5 Not available
Both teams scored 59% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 55% Not available
Home wins 41% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Marseille vs Le Havre 4-3 7 Yes 4 0 7 26
17 Oct 2026 Lille vs Brest 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 7 32
18 Sep 2026 Monaco vs Lens 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 10 24
6 Sep 2026 Marseille vs Paris FC 2-3 5 Yes 2 0 9 22
17 May 2026 Lorient vs Le Havre 0-2 2 No 3 0 6 22
10 May 2026 Monaco vs Lille 0-1 1 No 4 0 7 23
3 May 2026 Lyon vs Rennes 4-2 6 Yes 3 0 12 24
25 Apr 2026 Toulouse vs Monaco 2-2 4 Yes 5 0 6 27
22 Apr 2026 Paris SG vs Nantes 3-0 3 No 3 0 13 19
5 Apr 2026 Monaco vs Marseille 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 8 23

Clement Turpin referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Marseille vs Le Havre. It tips Le Havre for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.5% 28.5%
3.5 cards 50.6% 49.4%
4.5 cards 31.3% 68.7%
5.5 cards 17.0% 83.0%

Who picks up more cards

Marseille
37.5%
Level
21.6%
Le Havre
41.0%

Team cards lines

Marseille

Over 1.5
53.9%
Over 2.5
27.1%

Le Havre

Over 1.5
56.5%
Over 2.5
29.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Marseille's; Le Havre gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Marseille line Marseille Le Havre
-1.5 19.5% 80.5%
-0.5 37.5% 62.6%
+0.5 59.0% 41.0%
+1.5 77.8% 22.2%

Red card

Any red card21.1%
Marseille red card9.3%
Le Havre red card13.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 79.6% 20.4%
22.5 fouls 67.6% 32.4%
24.5 fouls 53.9% 46.1%
MarseilleMarseille

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Marseille at home and Le Havre away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Le HavreLe Havre
Statistic
Marseille
Le Havre
Cards per game at this venue
2.0
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.0
·

Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
0.6

Matches with card data
3
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.5% for over 2.5 to 17.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.6%. Head to head on cards, Le Havre are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 21.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Marseille over 1.5 cards sits at 53.9% and Le Havre at 56.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.1% (Marseille 9.3%, Le Havre 13.0%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

50.6%Over 3.5 cards
21.1%Any red card
41.0%Most cards: Le Havre
53.9%Marseille over 1.5 cards
56.5%Le Havre over 1.5 cards
67.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 50.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.1%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianLe Havre are the pick to collect more cards at 41.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 50.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
MarseilleMarseille

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Le HavreLe Havre
Statistic
Marseille
Le Havre
fouls per game
9.6
14.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Marseille vs Le Havre?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.6% for Marseille vs Le Havre.
Will there be a red card in Marseille vs Le Havre?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Marseille vs Le Havre?
Before kickoff, the model rated Le Havre to pick up more cards at 41.0%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 1, Cards

Le Havre vs PSG cards predictionLille vs Lens cards predictionNice vs Rennes cards predictionLorient vs Brest cards predictionLyon vs Angers cards predictionTroyes vs Le Mans cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 1Marseille fixtures and statsLe Havre fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.