Primeira LigaMarítimo M. vs 
Porto Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 43.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.4% for over 7.5 to 17.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.4%. Between the two sides, Marítimo M. are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 46.2%, with a level count at 10.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 24.8% | 75.3% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.4% | 82.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
63.9%
48.3%
34.3%
61.8%
46.1%
32.2%
Corner handicap
| Marítimo M. line | Marítimo M. | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| -0.5 | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| +0.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| +1.5 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
This season (2026/27)
7.5Porto corners won per game4.0Porto corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Marítimo M..
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
44.4%Over 9.5 corners48.3%Marítimo M. over 4.5 corners46.1%Porto over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Marítimo M. over 4.5 corners sits at 48.3% and Porto at 46.1%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 44.4% for Marítimo M. vs Porto.
Which team will win the corner count in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
The model rates Marítimo M. to win the corner count at 46.2%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
