Primeira Liga
Sp Braga vs Sporting CP Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 42.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 65.9% for over 7.5 to 16.3% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.2%. Between the two sides, Sp Braga are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.8%, with a level count at 10.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 32.3% | 67.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 16.3% | 83.7% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
68.4%
53.5%
39.3%
54.3%
38.2%
25.0%
Corner handicap
| Sp Braga line | Sp Braga | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| -0.5 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| +0.5 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| +1.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
This season (2026/27)
3.8Sp Braga corners won per game3.0Sp Braga corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Sp Braga.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
42.7%Over 9.5 corners53.5%Sp Braga over 4.5 corners38.2%Sporting CP over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Sp Braga over 4.5 corners sits at 53.5% and Sporting CP at 38.2%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Sp Braga vs Sporting CP?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 42.7% for Sp Braga vs Sporting CP.
Which team will win the corner count in Sp Braga vs Sporting CP?
The model rates Sp Braga to win the corner count at 54.8%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
