Primeira Liga
Moreirense vs 
Gil Vicente Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 44.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.3% for over 7.5 to 18.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.5%. On the corner count, Moreirense are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 49.3%, with a level count at 10.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 45.5% | 54.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.1% | 81.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
66.5%
51.2%
37.1%
60.3%
44.4%
30.6%
Corner handicap
| Moreirense line | Moreirense | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| -0.5 | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| +0.5 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| +1.5 | 69.4% | 30.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.5Moreirense corners won per game5.5Moreirense corners conceded per game3.6Gil Vicente corners won per game5.4Gil Vicente corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Moreirense.
In-depth analysis
45.5%Over 9.5 corners51.2%Moreirense over 4.5 corners44.4%Gil Vicente over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Moreirense over 4.5 corners sits at 51.2% and Gil Vicente at 44.4%. This season Moreirense have averaged 2.5 corners won a game and Gil Vicente 3.6.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 45.5% for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente.
Which team will win the corner count in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?
The model rates Moreirense to win the corner count at 49.3%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do Moreirense and Gil Vicente average this season?
Moreirense have won 2.5 corners a game this season and Gil Vicente 3.6.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
