Primeira LigaMarítimo M. vs 
Porto Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 44.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 56.2% for over 22.5 to 23.1% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.0%. On the shot count, Marítimo M. are the model’s pick to have more shots at 54.2%, with a level count at 6.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.1% | 76.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
63.9%
47.1%
31.9%
54.0%
36.8%
22.9%
Shot handicap
| Marítimo M. line | Marítimo M. | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| -2.5 | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| -0.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| +0.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 53.3% | 46.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 28.9% | 71.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
16.0Porto shots per game10.7Porto shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Marítimo M..
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
44.0%Over 24.5 shots47.1%Marítimo M. over 12.5 shots36.8%Porto over 12.5 shots53.3%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Marítimo M. over 12.5 shots sits at 47.1% and Porto at 36.8%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 44.0% for Marítimo M. vs Porto.
Which team will have more shots in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
The model rates Marítimo M. to take more shots at 54.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,771 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
