Primeira LigaMarítimo M. vs 
Porto Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.5% at 0-2, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.1% for over 2.5 and 75.9% for at least two goals. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0-2 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% |
| 0-3 | 9.1% |
| 0-0 | 7.1% |
| 1-3 | 6.3% |
| 0-4 | 4.6% |
Score probability grid
| Marítimo M. \ Porto | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 2% |
| 1 | 4% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 2 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | · | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Marítimo M. goals, columns = Porto. The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 13.5%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
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2
3
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5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
44.0%Both Teams to Score51.1%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 51.1% for three or more goals and 75.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Porto favoured at 67.9%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
The model's most likely scoreline for Marítimo M. vs Porto is 0-2 at 13.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
