Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs 
Santa Clara Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 44.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 67.8% for over 7.5 to 17.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. On the corner count, Casa Pia are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 49.0%, with a level count at 10.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 9.5 corners | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.1% | 74.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.7% | 82.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
65.9%
50.6%
36.5%
60.1%
44.2%
30.5%
Corner handicap
| Casa Pia line | Casa Pia | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.7% | 61.4% |
| -0.5 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| +0.5 | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| +1.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
This season (2026/27)
4.2Casa Pia corners won per game6.0Casa Pia corners conceded per game3.5Santa Clara corners won per game5.7Santa Clara corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Casa Pia.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
44.8%Over 9.5 corners50.6%Casa Pia over 4.5 corners44.2%Santa Clara over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Casa Pia over 4.5 corners sits at 50.6% and Santa Clara at 44.2%. This season Casa Pia have averaged 4.2 corners won a game and Santa Clara 3.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 44.8% for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara.
Which team will win the corner count in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
The model rates Casa Pia to win the corner count at 49.0%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do Casa Pia and Santa Clara average this season?
Casa Pia have won 4.2 corners a game this season and Santa Clara 3.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
