Primeira LigaMarítimo M. vs 
Porto Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Draw or Away at 88.9%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Porto are favoured at 68.8%, so game state could swing this market. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marítimo M. by 1 | 8.0% |
| Marítimo M. by 2 | 2.5% |
| Marítimo M. by 3+ | 0.6% |
| Porto by 1 | 24.5% |
| Porto by 2 | 21.2% |
| Porto by 3+ | 23.2% |
| Draw | 20.1% |
Goal handicap
| Marítimo M. line | Marítimo M. | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 11.1% | 88.9% |
| +0.5 | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| +1.5 | 55.7% | 44.4% |
| +2.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
This season (2026/27)
2.6Porto goals scored per game0.4Porto goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is draw or Porto on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
44.4%Both Teams to Score52.3%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Porto are favoured at 68.8%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
Draw or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Marítimo M. vs Porto at 88.9%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Marítimo M. vs Porto?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Marítimo M. at 13.9% and Porto at 86.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,098 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Primeira Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
