AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
Manchester UnitedMan UtdDLDDD
Full time0-3Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:00UK11°C · Clearing
BournemouthBournemouthDDLLW

Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined54.7%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined45.4%

Result

Manchester United0-3Bournemouth
9 cornersManchester United 5, Bournemouth 4
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 54.7% and it missed (9 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners54.7%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Manchester United.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 76.6% 23.4%
8.5 corners 66.1% 33.9%
9.5 corners 54.7% 45.4%
10.5 corners 43.3% 56.7%
11.5 corners 32.9% 67.1%
12.5 corners 23.9% 76.1%

Who wins the corner count

Manchester United
52.6%
Level
9.9%
Bournemouth
37.5%

Team corners lines

Manchester United

Over 3.5
73.9%
Over 4.5
59.6%
Over 5.5
45.2%

Bournemouth

Over 3.5
64.2%
Over 4.5
48.1%
Over 5.5
33.7%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Manchester United's; Bournemouth gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Manchester United line Manchester United Bournemouth
-1.5 42.6% 57.4%
-0.5 52.6% 47.4%
+0.5 62.5% 37.5%
+1.5 71.6% 28.4%
Manchester UnitedMan Utd

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Manchester United at home and Bournemouth away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BournemouthBournemouth
Statistic
Manchester United
Bournemouth
Matches with more corners than the opponent
60.0%
40.0%

Matches with corner data
5
5

Bar scales · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 54.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 76.6% for over 7.5 to 23.9% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.7%. On the corner count, Manchester United are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.6%, with a level count at 9.9%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Manchester United over 4.5 corners sits at 59.6% and Bournemouth at 48.1%. This season Manchester United have averaged 7.2 corners won a game and Bournemouth 4.2.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

54.7%Over 9.5 corners
52.6%Most corners: Manchester United
59.6%Manchester United over 4.5 corners
48.1%Bournemouth over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.7% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderManchester United are the pick to win the corner count at 52.6%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 54.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Manchester UnitedMan Utd

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BournemouthBournemouth
Statistic
Manchester United
Bournemouth
corners won per game
7.2
4.2

corners conceded per game
3.8
4.6

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 54.7% for Manchester United vs Bournemouth.
Which team will win the corner count in Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Before kickoff, the model rated Manchester United to win the corner count at 52.6%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How many corners do Manchester United and Bournemouth average this season?
Manchester United have won 7.2 corners a game this season and Bournemouth 4.2.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Premier LeagueManchester United fixtures and statsBournemouth fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.