La Liga
Malaga vs 
Villarreal Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 48.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.4% for over 7.5 to 19.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. Between the two sides, Malaga are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.9%, with a level count at 10.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 9.5 corners | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 27.4% | 72.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.0% | 81.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.2%
60.2%
44.9%
59.0%
41.6%
26.9%
Corner handicap
| Malaga line | Malaga | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.8% | 74.2% |
| -1.5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| -0.5 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| +0.5 | 67.5% | 32.6% |
This season (2026/27)
5.0Malaga corners won per game4.8Malaga corners conceded per game7.2Villarreal corners won per game4.2Villarreal corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Malaga.
In-depth analysis
49.6%Over 9.5 corners60.2%Malaga over 4.5 corners41.6%Villarreal over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Malaga over 4.5 corners sits at 60.2% and Villarreal at 41.6%. This season Malaga have averaged 5.0 corners won a game and Villarreal 7.2.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Malaga vs Villarreal?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 49.6% for Malaga vs Villarreal.
Which team will win the corner count in Malaga vs Villarreal?
The model rates Malaga to win the corner count at 56.9%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Malaga and Villarreal average this season?
Malaga have won 5.0 corners a game this season and Villarreal 7.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,617 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
