La Liga
Malaga vs 
Villarreal Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 48.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 61.2% for over 22.5 to 25.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.5%. Head to head on shots, Malaga are the model’s pick to have more shots at 64.7%, with a level count at 5.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.5% | 74.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.8%
57.6%
41.1%
50.1%
32.0%
18.4%
Shot handicap
| Malaga line | Malaga | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| -2.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| -0.5 | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| +0.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 58.5% | 41.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.4% | 66.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
4.8 / 6.2
6.5 / 8.0
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
This season (2026/27)
10.8Malaga shots per game13.6Malaga shots faced per game4.8Malaga first-half shots6.2Malaga second-half shots15.0Villarreal shots per game15.8Villarreal shots faced per game6.5Villarreal first-half shots8.0Villarreal second-half shotsShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Malaga.
In-depth analysis
48.5%Over 24.5 shots57.6%Malaga over 12.5 shots32.0%Villarreal over 12.5 shots58.5%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Malaga over 12.5 shots sits at 57.6% and Villarreal at 32.0%. This season Malaga have averaged 10.8 shots a game and Villarreal 15.0. Malaga take 4.8 shots before half-time and 6.2 after, Villarreal 6.5 and 8.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Malaga vs Villarreal?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 48.5% for Malaga vs Villarreal.
Which team will have more shots in Malaga vs Villarreal?
The model rates Malaga to take more shots at 64.7%.
Do Malaga shoot more in the first or second half?
Malaga average 4.8 shots before half-time and 6.2 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,699 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
