Bundesliga
Mainz vs 
Leverkusen Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 60.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.8% for over 2.5 to 24.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 40.7%. On the card count, Leverkusen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 20.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 24.4% | 75.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
61.3%
34.2%
62.4%
35.4%
Card handicap
| Mainz line | Mainz | Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| -0.5 | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| +0.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| +1.5 | 77.0% | 23.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.2% | 72.8% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Mainz vs Leverkusen. Slightly more cards are projected for Leverkusen for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
60.2%Over 3.5 cards11.4%Any red card61.3%Mainz over 1.5 cards62.4%Leverkusen over 1.5 cards37.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Mainz over 1.5 cards sits at 61.3% and Leverkusen at 62.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.4% (Mainz 9.1%, Leverkusen 2.5%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Mainz vs Leverkusen?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 60.2% for Mainz vs Leverkusen.
Will there be a red card in Mainz vs Leverkusen?
The model rates a red card for either side at 11.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Mainz vs Leverkusen?
The model rates Leverkusen to pick up more cards at 40.7%, with a level count at 20.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,143 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
