Bundesliga
Augsburg vs 
Bayern Munich Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 45.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.5% for over 2.5 to 13.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.8%. Between the two sides, Augsburg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 22.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.5% | 32.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.0% | 73.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 13.9% | 86.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.5%
27.7%
49.0%
22.9%
Card handicap
| Augsburg line | Augsburg | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.9% | 77.1% |
| -0.5 | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| +0.5 | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| +1.5 | 82.6% | 17.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 20.6% | 79.4% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich. The model leans toward Augsburg for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
45.8%Over 3.5 cards12.1%Any red card54.5%Augsburg over 1.5 cards49.0%Bayern Munich over 1.5 cards30.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Augsburg over 1.5 cards sits at 54.5% and Bayern Munich at 49.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.1% (Augsburg 4.9%, Bayern Munich 7.5%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 45.8% for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich.
Will there be a red card in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
The model rates Augsburg to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 22.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
