Bundesliga
Hoffenheim vs 
Hamburg Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 56.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.3% for over 2.5 to 21.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.9%. Head to head on cards, Hoffenheim are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 20.5%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 21.7% | 78.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.5%
36.6%
55.2%
28.3%
Card handicap
| Hoffenheim line | Hoffenheim | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| -0.5 | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| +0.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| +1.5 | 82.5% | 17.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.3% | 60.7% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hoffenheim vs Hamburg. The model leans toward Hoffenheim for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
56.9%Over 3.5 cards25.7%Any red card63.5%Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards55.2%Hamburg over 1.5 cards50.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Hoffenheim over 1.5 cards sits at 63.5% and Hamburg at 55.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 25.7% (Hoffenheim 11.4%, Hamburg 16.2%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 56.9% for Hoffenheim vs Hamburg.
Will there be a red card in Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?
The model rates a red card for either side at 25.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hoffenheim vs Hamburg?
The model rates Hoffenheim to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 20.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
