Bundesliga
FC Koln vs 
M'gladbach Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 54.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.6% for over 2.5 to 19.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.5%. Between the two sides, M'gladbach are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.8% | 80.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.8%
28.8%
60.0%
32.9%
Card handicap
| FC Koln line | FC Koln | M'gladbach |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.2% | 80.8% |
| -0.5 | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| +0.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| +1.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 23.8% | 76.2% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for FC Koln vs M'gladbach. The model leans toward M'gladbach for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
54.5%Over 3.5 cards18.3%Any red card55.8%FC Koln over 1.5 cards60.0%M'gladbach over 1.5 cards33.9%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, FC Koln over 1.5 cards sits at 55.8% and M'gladbach at 60.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.3% (FC Koln 6.1%, M'gladbach 13.0%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 54.5% for FC Koln vs M'gladbach.
Will there be a red card in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in FC Koln vs M'gladbach?
The model rates M'gladbach to pick up more cards at 42.5%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
