Bundesliga
Mainz vs 
Leverkusen Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 63.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Mainz have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, Leverkusen 2.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 63.7% for over 2.5 and 84.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Mainz have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Leverkusen in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 15.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 4.5 goals | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| 5.5 goals | 11.6% | 88.4% |
Team goal lines
80.6%
48.9%
22.9%
80.6%
48.8%
22.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 22.7% | 77.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.6% | 80.4% |
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
65.5%Both Teams to Score63.7%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 63.7% for three or more goals and 84.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Mainz favoured at 38.1%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Mainz to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Mainz 0 · 2 draws · Leverkusen 3 · 3.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mainz vs Leverkusen?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 63.7% for Mainz vs Leverkusen.
Will there be a first-half goal in Mainz vs Leverkusen?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 80.6%.
How often have Mainz gone over 2.5 recently?
Mainz have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Leverkusen in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 6,538 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
