Bundesliga
Mainz vs 
Leverkusen Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals (xG)
2.65Mainz xG created/game
1.70Mainz xG conceded/game2.84Leverkusen xG created/game1.51Leverkusen xG conceded/gameRecent xG created & conceded (per game)
Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.
2.65
1.70
2.84
1.51
Mainz have created 2.65 xG and scored 1.83 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Leverkusen have created 2.84 xG and scored 2.33 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
64.3%Both Teams to Score62.2%Over 2.5 goalsMatch outlook
The model leans Mainz to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Mainz 0 · 2 draws · Leverkusen 3 · 3.4 goals/game.
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
