Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Mainz38.1%
Win probability · fair 2.63
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely83.5%Fair 1.20
Both teams to scoreLikely64.3%Fair 1.56
Over 2.5 goalsLikely62.2%Fair 1.61
Model read
▾
Mainz versus Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on 9 October 2026 is finely balanced. Mainz edge it at 38%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 62% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. • Sheraldo Becker drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. • The recent series reads 0 wins for Mainz, 2 draws and 3 for Leverkusen over 5 games, 3.4 goals on average. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Mainz against W2 D2 L2 for Leverkusen. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners41.0%@ 2.44
Leverkusen win38.1%@ 2.63
Over 11.5 corners31.6%@ 3.16
Medium risk
Mainz or draw61.9%@ 1.61
Draw or Leverkusen61.9%@ 1.61
Over 9.5 corners51.4%@ 1.95
Random finds
1-1 correct score10.9%@ 9.18
1-2 correct score8.3%@ 12.00
2-1 correct score8.3%@ 12.06
Model vs market
Mainz
38.1%
Draw
23.9%
Leverkusen
38.1%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely83.5%Fair 1.20
Over 2.5Likely62.2%Fair 1.61
BTTS · YesLikely64.3%Fair 1.56
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely62.1%Fair 1.61
Over 9.5 cornersClose call51.4%Fair 1.95
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely41.0%Fair 2.44
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely31.6%Fair 3.16
Most cornersMainz55.5%Leverkusen33.8%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely72.5%Fair 1.38
Over 24.5 shotsLikely61.2%Fair 1.63
Over 26.5 shotsClose call49.2%Fair 2.03
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely37.5%Fair 2.67
Recent shot volume
Mainz17.0 taken11.7 faced
Leverkusen21.2 taken12.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Mainz (3 games)
9.0 / 10.0
Leverkusen (3 games)
10.0 / 14.0
Totals line guide
0.5·1.583.5%2.562.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.562.2%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
MainzLWDWL
LeverkusenLDLWD
Last 5 meetings: Mainz 0 · 2 draws · Leverkusen 3 · 3.4 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Sheraldo BeckerMainz · key player
To score15.1%6.62
1+ on target51.4%1.95
2+ shots41.4%2.42
Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 1.37Goals/90 0.31
Victor BonifaceLeverkusen · key player
To score19.4%5.15
1+ on target52.7%1.90
2+ shots56.4%1.77
Shots/90 4.4SoT/90 1.74Goals/90 0.5
Phillip TietzMainz · in form
To score22.4%4.46
1+ on target54.1%1.85
2+ shots54.4%1.84
Shots/90 2.81SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.39
Patrik SchickLeverkusen · in form
To score49.0%2.04
1+ on target68.7%1.46
2+ shots72.8%1.37
Shots/90 3.59SoT/90 1.62Goals/90 0.94
Nadiem AmiriMainz · in form
To score26.3%3.80
1+ on target55.3%1.81
2+ shots60.4%1.66
Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.33
Christian KofaneLeverkusen · in form
To score19.0%5.26
1+ on target47.1%2.12
2+ shots48.6%2.06
Shots/90 3.57SoT/90 1.39Goals/90 0.46
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Mainz win2.65
Draw4.10
Leverkusen win2.64
Both teams to score1.55
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.61
Over 3.5 goals2.50
Over 4.5 goals4.50
Mainz most2.65
Leverkusen most2.64
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.89
Over 10.5 corners2.43
Mainz most1.80
Leverkusen most2.95
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.76
Over 4.5 cards2.67
Over 5.5 cards4.60
Mainz most2.52
Leverkusen most2.53
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.26
Over 7.5 SoT1.45
Over 8.5 SoT1.74
Over 9.5 SoT2.19
Mainz most1.77
Leverkusen most3.13
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.38
Over 24.5 shots1.63
Over 26.5 shots2.03
Over 28.5 shots2.67
Mainz most1.70
Leverkusen most2.84
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.03
Over 22.5 fouls2.70
Over 24.5 fouls3.76
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
72.5%
Over 24.5
61.2%
Over 26.5
49.2%
Over 28.5
37.5%
Most: Mainz
58.9%
Most: Leverkusen
35.2%
Mainz Over 13.2
54.3%
Leverkusen Over 13.2
37.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
79.6%
Over 7.5
69.1%
Over 8.5
57.5%
Over 9.5
45.7%
Most: Mainz
56.6%
Most: Leverkusen
31.9%
Mainz Over 4.2
57.5%
Leverkusen Over 4.2
39.6%
Cards
Over 2.5
76.4%
Over 3.5
57.0%
Over 4.5
37.4%
Most: Mainz
39.7%
Most: Leverkusen
39.6%
Mainz Over 1.8
59.7%
Leverkusen Over 1.8
59.6%
Mainz: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Sheraldo Becker
2.69
1.37
0.31
51.4%
41.4%
15.1%
Phillip Tietz
2.81
1.2
0.39
54.1%
54.4%
22.4%
Nadiem Amiri
2.2
0.87
0.33
55.3%
60.4%
26.3%
Ransford Königsdörffer
2.5
0.86
0.21
47.8%
56.3%
14.7%
Benedict Hollerbach
2.66
0.68
0.25
41.7%
62.3%
18.0%
Leverkusen: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Victor Boniface
4.4
1.74
0.5
52.7%
56.4%
19.4%
Patrik Schick
3.59
1.62
0.94
68.7%
72.8%
49.0%
Christian Kofane
3.57
1.39
0.46
47.1%
48.6%
19.0%
Martin Terrier
2.11
0.84
0.42
27.5%
19.4%
14.9%
Jonas Hofmann
2.21
0.83
0.28
29.8%
24.3%
11.3%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Mainz clean sheet
19.9%
Leverkusen clean sheet
20.1%
Mainz win to nil
15.3%
Leverkusen win to nil
15.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
37.7%
draw
24.4%
away
37.9%
double_chance
1X
62.1%
12
75.6%
X2
62.3%
dnb
home
49.8%
away
50.2%
btts
yes
64.3%
no
35.7%
clean_sheet
home
20.1%
away
20.2%
win_to_nil
home
15.5%
away
15.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1
18.7%
home_by_2
11.3%
home_by_3plus
7.6%
away_by_1
18.8%
away_by_2
11.4%
away_by_3plus
7.7%
correct_score
0-0
4.6%
0-1
6.0%
0-2
5.2%
0-3
2.8%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.4%
1-0
5.9%
1-1
10.9%
1-2
8.3%
1-3
4.5%
1-4
1.8%
1-5
0.6%
2-0
5.2%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.7%
2-3
3.6%
2-4
1.5%
2-5
0.5%
3-0
2.8%
3-1
4.4%
3-2
3.6%
3-3
1.9%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.3%
4-0
1.1%
4-1
1.8%
4-2
1.4%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.3%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
10.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.4%
under_0.5
4.6%
over_1.5
83.5%
under_1.5
16.5%
over_2.5
62.2%
under_2.5
37.8%
over_3.5
40.0%
under_3.5
60.0%
over_4.5
22.2%
under_4.5
77.8%
over_5.5
10.8%
under_5.5
89.2%
odd_even
odd
48.9%
even
51.1%
team_home
over_0.5
79.8%
under_0.5
20.2%
over_1.5
47.6%
under_1.5
52.4%
over_2.5
21.8%
under_2.5
78.2%
team_away
over_0.5
80.0%
under_0.5
20.1%
over_1.5
47.8%
under_1.5
52.2%
over_2.5
21.9%
under_2.5
78.1%
most
home
37.7%
draw
24.4%
away
37.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
7.6%
away_+2.5
92.4%
home_-1.5
19.0%
away_+1.5
81.0%
home_-0.5
37.7%
away_+0.5
62.3%
home_+0.5
62.1%
away_-0.5
37.9%
home_+1.5
80.9%
away_-1.5
19.1%
home_+2.5
92.3%
away_-2.5
7.7%
total_exact
exact_0
4.6%
exact_1
12.0%
exact_2
21.3%
exact_3
22.2%
exact_4
17.8%
exact_5
11.5%
exact_6
6.2%
exact_7plus
4.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
32.9%
draw
35.2%
away
31.9%
total
over_0.5
80.0%
under_0.5
20.0%
over_1.5
47.9%
under_1.5
52.1%
over_2.5
22.0%
under_2.5
78.1%
btts
yes
30.6%
no
69.4%
total_exact
exact_0
20.0%
exact_1
32.2%
exact_2
25.9%
exact_3
13.9%
exact_4plus
8.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
28.8%
draw
37.1%
away
34.0%
total
over_0.5
77.0%
under_0.5
23.0%
over_1.5
43.2%
under_1.5
56.8%
over_2.5
18.4%
under_2.5
81.6%
btts
yes
27.0%
no
73.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
24.4%
H/D
5.9%
H/A
2.6%
D/H
10.1%
D/D
13.1%
D/A
12.0%
A/H
1.9%
A/D
5.0%
A/A
25.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
75.9%
under_7.5
24.1%
over_8.5
64.8%
under_8.5
35.2%
over_9.5
52.8%
under_9.5
47.2%
over_10.5
41.1%
under_10.5
58.9%
over_11.5
30.4%
under_11.5
69.6%
over_12.5
21.5%
under_12.5
78.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
76.0%
under_3.5
24.0%
over_4.5
61.3%
under_4.5
38.7%
over_5.5
46.1%
under_5.5
53.9%
team_away
over_3.5
62.1%
under_3.5
37.9%
over_4.5
44.9%
under_4.5
55.1%
over_5.5
29.8%
under_5.5
70.2%
most
home
55.7%
draw
10.5%
away
33.9%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.2%
away_+3.5
74.8%
home_-1.5
44.8%
away_+1.5
55.2%
home_-0.5
55.7%
away_+0.5
44.4%
home_+0.5
66.1%
away_-0.5
33.9%
home_+1.5
75.4%
away_-1.5
24.6%
home_+3.5
89.1%
away_-3.5
10.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
72.5%
under_22.5
27.5%
over_24.5
61.2%
under_24.5
38.8%
over_26.5
49.2%
under_26.5
50.8%
over_28.5
37.5%
under_28.5
62.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
77.5%
under_10.5
22.5%
over_12.5
62.4%
under_12.5
37.6%
over_14.5
46.3%
under_14.5
53.7%
team_away
over_10.5
63.2%
under_10.5
36.8%
over_12.5
45.5%
under_12.5
54.5%
over_14.5
29.7%
under_14.5
70.3%
most
home
58.9%
draw
5.8%
away
35.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.0%
away_+4.5
65.0%
home_-2.5
46.8%
away_+2.5
53.2%
home_-0.5
58.9%
away_+0.5
41.1%
home_+0.5
64.8%
away_-0.5
35.2%
home_+2.5
75.3%
away_-2.5
24.7%
home_+4.5
83.9%
away_-4.5
16.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
79.6%
under_6.5
20.5%
over_7.5
69.1%
under_7.5
30.9%
over_8.5
57.5%
under_8.5
42.5%
over_9.5
45.7%
under_9.5
54.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
73.2%
under_3.5
26.8%
over_4.5
57.6%
under_4.5
42.4%
over_5.5
42.0%
under_5.5
58.0%
team_away
over_3.5
57.4%
under_3.5
42.6%
over_4.5
39.7%
under_4.5
60.4%
over_5.5
25.0%
under_5.5
75.0%
most
home
56.6%
draw
11.5%
away
31.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
33.1%
away_+2.5
66.9%
home_-0.5
56.6%
away_+0.5
43.4%
home_+0.5
68.1%
away_-0.5
31.9%
home_+2.5
85.9%
away_-2.5
14.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
76.4%
under_2.5
23.6%
over_3.5
57.0%
under_3.5
43.0%
over_4.5
37.4%
under_4.5
62.6%
over_5.5
21.8%
under_5.5
78.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
59.7%
under_1.5
40.3%
over_2.5
32.6%
under_2.5
67.4%
team_away
over_1.5
59.6%
under_1.5
40.4%
over_2.5
32.5%
under_2.5
67.5%
most
home
39.7%
draw
20.7%
away
39.6%
handicap
home_-1.5
21.9%
away_+1.5
78.1%
home_-0.5
39.7%
away_+0.5
60.3%
home_+0.5
60.4%
away_-0.5
39.6%
home_+1.5
78.2%
away_-1.5
21.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
49.2%
under_20.5
50.8%
over_22.5
37.1%
under_22.5
62.9%
over_24.5
26.6%
under_24.5
73.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
58.4%
under_9.5
41.6%
over_11.5
41.3%
under_11.5
58.7%
over_13.5
26.8%
under_13.5
73.2%
team_away
over_9.5
49.3%
under_9.5
50.7%
over_11.5
32.3%
under_11.5
67.7%
over_13.5
19.3%
under_13.5
80.7%
most
home
53.3%
draw
6.4%
away
40.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
34.3%
away_+3.5
65.7%
home_-0.5
53.3%
away_+0.5
46.7%
home_+2.5
71.6%
away_-2.5
28.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
11.9%
no
88.1%
home
yes
9.5%
no
90.5%
away
yes
2.6%
no
97.4%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Bundesliga
Mainz
Leverkusen