Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
RB Leipzig62.6%
Win probability · fair 1.60
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely88.1%Fair 1.14
RB Leipzig or drawVery likely80.4%Fair 1.24
Over 2.5 goalsLikely70.2%Fair 1.42
Model read
▾
"RB Leipzig or Ein Frankfurt? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes RB Leipzig heavy favourites at 63% when RB Leipzig meet Ein Frankfurt in the Bundesliga on 9 October 2026. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 70% with both teams to score at 66%. Conrad Harder drives the home shot volume, 1.5 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: RB Leipzig W3 D0 L3, Ein Frankfurt W1 D2 L3. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for RB Leipzig, 1 draws and 1 for Ein Frankfurt at 4.2 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners42.1%@ 2.38
Draw or Ein Frankfurt37.4%@ 2.67
Over 11.5 corners32.6%@ 3.07
Medium risk
Over 9.5 corners52.5%@ 1.90
Random finds
2-1 correct score9.3%@ 10.75
1-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.72
3-1 correct score7.1%@ 14.04
Model vs market
RB Leipzig
62.6%
Draw
17.8%
Ein Frankfurt
19.6%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely88.1%Fair 1.14
Over 2.5Likely70.2%Fair 1.42
BTTS · YesLikely66.5%Fair 1.50
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.1%Fair 1.58
Over 9.5 cornersClose call52.5%Fair 1.90
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.1%Fair 2.38
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely32.6%Fair 3.07
Most cornersRB Leipzig58.1%Ein Frankfurt31.5%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely73.0%Fair 1.37
Over 24.5 shotsLikely61.7%Fair 1.62
Over 26.5 shotsClose call49.6%Fair 2.02
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely37.8%Fair 2.65
Recent shot volume
RB Leipzig17.3 taken13.0 faced
Ein Frankfurt13.0 taken14.8 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
RB Leipzig (3 games)
8.3 / 12.7
Ein Frankfurt (3 games)
7.7 / 7.7
Totals line guide
0.5·1.588.1%2.570.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.570.2%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
RB LeipzigWLWLW
Ein FrankfurtLDDLW
Last 5 meetings: RB Leipzig 3 · 1 draws · Ein Frankfurt 1 · 4.2 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Conrad HarderRB Leipzig · key player
To score11.4%8.77
1+ on target38.5%2.60
2+ shots40.6%2.46
Shots/90 4.36SoT/90 1.52Goals/90 0.38
Can UzunEin Frankfurt · key player
To score27.7%3.61
1+ on target53.5%1.87
2+ shots52.7%1.90
Shots/90 3.21SoT/90 1.39Goals/90 0.59
Assan OuédraogoRB Leipzig · in form
To score15.8%6.33
1+ on target43.2%2.31
2+ shots36.0%2.78
Shots/90 2.5SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.34
Jonathan BurkardtEin Frankfurt · in form
To score45.3%2.21
1+ on target63.1%1.58
2+ shots65.9%1.52
Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.32Goals/90 0.8
Christopher NkunkuRB Leipzig · in form
To score15.8%6.33
1+ on target38.9%2.57
2+ shots27.0%3.70
Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.38
Ayoube Amaimouni-EchghouyabEin Frankfurt · in form
To score9.0%11.11
1+ on target31.7%3.15
2+ shots17.7%5.65
Shots/90 2.18SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.27
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
RB Leipzig win1.70
Draw4.91
Ein Frankfurt win4.77
Both teams to score1.50
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.14
Over 2.5 goals1.43
Over 3.5 goals2.04
Over 4.5 goals3.34
RB Leipzig most1.70
Ein Frankfurt most4.77
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.85
Over 10.5 corners2.36
RB Leipzig most1.72
Ein Frankfurt most3.17
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.49
Over 3.5 cards2.21
Over 4.5 cards3.76
Over 5.5 cards7.33
RB Leipzig most2.83
Ein Frankfurt most2.36
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.30
Over 8.5 SoT1.49
Over 9.5 SoT1.79
RB Leipzig most1.50
Ein Frankfurt most4.26
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.37
Over 24.5 shots1.62
Over 26.5 shots2.02
Over 28.5 shots2.65
RB Leipzig most1.51
Ein Frankfurt most3.52
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls2.22
Over 22.5 fouls3.01
Over 24.5 fouls4.31
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
72.9%
Over 24.5
61.7%
Over 26.5
49.6%
Over 28.5
37.8%
Most: RB Leipzig
66.2%
Most: Ein Frankfurt
28.4%
RB Leipzig Over 13.2
59.7%
Ein Frankfurt Over 13.2
32.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
85.7%
Over 7.5
77.2%
Over 8.5
67.0%
Over 9.5
56.0%
Most: RB Leipzig
66.7%
Most: Ein Frankfurt
23.5%
RB Leipzig Over 4.2
70.2%
Ein Frankfurt Over 4.2
38.9%
Cards
Over 2.5
67.1%
Over 3.5
45.3%
Over 4.5
26.6%
Most: RB Leipzig
35.3%
Most: Ein Frankfurt
42.3%
RB Leipzig Over 1.8
48.9%
Ein Frankfurt Over 1.8
54.1%
RB Leipzig: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Conrad Harder
4.36
1.52
0.38
38.5%
40.6%
11.4%
Assan Ouédraogo
2.5
1.12
0.34
43.2%
36.0%
15.8%
Christopher Nkunku
2.25
1.09
0.38
38.9%
27.0%
15.8%
Rômulo
2.51
1
0.39
55.5%
60.2%
27.1%
Johan Bakayoko
2.77
0.96
0.21
33.6%
33.1%
8.6%
Ein Frankfurt: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Can Uzun
3.21
1.39
0.59
53.5%
52.7%
27.7%
Jonathan Burkardt
2.99
1.32
0.8
63.1%
65.9%
45.3%
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab
2.18
1.09
0.27
31.7%
17.7%
9.0%
Ansgar Knauff
1.98
0.71
0.25
33.6%
31.7%
13.4%
Ritsu Doan
1.59
0.51
0.24
37.1%
42.4%
19.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
RB Leipzig clean sheet
25.6%
Ein Frankfurt clean sheet
10.1%
RB Leipzig win to nil
22.5%
Ein Frankfurt win to nil
7.0%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
58.7%
draw
20.4%
away
21.0%
double_chance
1X
79.0%
12
79.6%
X2
41.3%
dnb
home
73.7%
away
26.3%
btts
yes
66.5%
no
33.5%
clean_sheet
home
26.4%
away
10.1%
win_to_nil
home
23.3%
away
7.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.2%
home_by_2
17.5%
home_by_3plus
20.0%
away_by_1
12.1%
away_by_2
5.9%
away_by_3plus
2.9%
correct_score
0-0
3.1%
0-1
3.2%
0-2
2.4%
0-3
1.1%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
5.7%
1-1
8.5%
1-2
5.4%
1-3
2.4%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
7.0%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
6.2%
2-3
2.8%
2-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
7.1%
3-2
4.7%
3-3
2.1%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
3.1%
4-1
4.1%
4-2
2.7%
4-3
1.2%
4-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
1.4%
5-1
1.9%
5-2
1.3%
5-3
0.6%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
other
3.3%
likeliest_score
h
200.0%
a
100.0%
p
9.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
96.9%
under_0.5
3.1%
over_1.5
88.1%
under_1.5
12.0%
over_2.5
70.2%
under_2.5
29.8%
over_3.5
49.1%
under_3.5
50.9%
over_4.5
29.9%
under_4.5
70.1%
over_5.5
16.0%
under_5.5
84.0%
odd_even
odd
49.2%
even
50.8%
team_home
over_0.5
89.9%
under_0.5
10.1%
over_1.5
66.8%
under_1.5
33.2%
over_2.5
40.3%
under_2.5
59.7%
team_away
over_0.5
73.6%
under_0.5
26.4%
over_1.5
38.4%
under_1.5
61.6%
over_2.5
15.0%
under_2.5
85.0%
most
home
58.7%
draw
20.4%
away
21.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
20.0%
away_+2.5
80.0%
home_-1.5
37.5%
away_+1.5
62.5%
home_-0.5
58.7%
away_+0.5
41.3%
home_+0.5
79.0%
away_-0.5
21.0%
home_+1.5
91.2%
away_-1.5
8.8%
home_+2.5
97.1%
away_-2.5
2.9%
total_exact
exact_0
3.1%
exact_1
8.9%
exact_2
17.9%
exact_3
21.1%
exact_4
19.1%
exact_5
13.9%
exact_6
8.4%
exact_7plus
7.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
45.2%
draw
34.8%
away
20.0%
total
over_0.5
78.5%
under_0.5
21.5%
over_1.5
45.5%
under_1.5
54.5%
over_2.5
20.1%
under_2.5
79.9%
btts
yes
26.5%
no
73.5%
total_exact
exact_0
21.5%
exact_1
33.1%
exact_2
25.4%
exact_3
13.0%
exact_4plus
7.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
51.0%
draw
27.5%
away
21.5%
total
over_0.5
88.9%
under_0.5
11.2%
over_1.5
64.4%
under_1.5
35.6%
over_2.5
37.6%
under_2.5
62.5%
btts
yes
41.4%
no
58.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
38.4%
H/D
4.8%
H/A
2.0%
D/H
17.8%
D/D
9.6%
D/A
7.5%
A/H
4.2%
A/D
4.6%
A/A
11.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
76.8%
under_7.5
23.2%
over_8.5
65.9%
under_8.5
34.1%
over_9.5
54.1%
under_9.5
45.9%
over_10.5
42.3%
under_10.5
57.7%
over_11.5
31.6%
under_11.5
68.4%
over_12.5
22.5%
under_12.5
77.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
77.9%
under_3.5
22.1%
over_4.5
63.8%
under_4.5
36.2%
over_5.5
48.8%
under_5.5
51.2%
team_away
over_3.5
60.9%
under_3.5
39.1%
over_4.5
43.6%
under_4.5
56.4%
over_5.5
28.7%
under_5.5
71.3%
most
home
58.2%
draw
10.2%
away
31.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
27.5%
away_+3.5
72.5%
home_-1.5
47.5%
away_+1.5
52.5%
home_-0.5
58.2%
away_+0.5
41.8%
home_+0.5
68.4%
away_-0.5
31.6%
home_+1.5
77.4%
away_-1.5
22.6%
home_+3.5
90.1%
away_-3.5
9.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
73.0%
under_22.5
27.1%
over_24.5
61.7%
under_24.5
38.3%
over_26.5
49.6%
under_26.5
50.4%
over_28.5
37.8%
under_28.5
62.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
81.2%
under_10.5
18.8%
over_12.5
67.5%
under_12.5
32.6%
over_14.5
51.8%
under_14.5
48.2%
team_away
over_10.5
58.1%
under_10.5
41.9%
over_12.5
40.1%
under_12.5
59.9%
over_14.5
25.0%
under_14.5
75.0%
most
home
66.2%
draw
5.4%
away
28.4%
handicap
home_-4.5
42.3%
away_+4.5
57.7%
home_-2.5
54.5%
away_+2.5
45.5%
home_-0.5
66.2%
away_+0.5
33.8%
home_+0.5
71.6%
away_-0.5
28.4%
home_+2.5
81.0%
away_-2.5
19.0%
home_+4.5
88.1%
away_-4.5
11.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
85.7%
under_6.5
14.3%
over_7.5
77.2%
under_7.5
22.8%
over_8.5
67.1%
under_8.5
33.0%
over_9.5
56.0%
under_9.5
44.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
82.7%
under_3.5
17.3%
over_4.5
70.2%
under_4.5
29.8%
over_5.5
56.0%
under_5.5
44.0%
team_away
over_3.5
56.7%
under_3.5
43.3%
over_4.5
38.9%
under_4.5
61.1%
over_5.5
24.4%
under_5.5
75.6%
most
home
66.7%
draw
9.8%
away
23.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
44.4%
away_+2.5
55.6%
home_-0.5
66.7%
away_+0.5
33.3%
home_+0.5
76.5%
away_-0.5
23.5%
home_+2.5
90.4%
away_-2.5
9.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
67.1%
under_2.5
32.9%
over_3.5
45.4%
under_3.5
54.7%
over_4.5
26.6%
under_4.5
73.4%
over_5.5
13.6%
under_5.5
86.4%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
48.9%
under_1.5
51.2%
over_2.5
22.8%
under_2.5
77.2%
team_away
over_1.5
54.1%
under_1.5
45.9%
over_2.5
27.3%
under_2.5
72.7%
most
home
35.3%
draw
22.4%
away
42.3%
handicap
home_-1.5
17.5%
away_+1.5
82.5%
home_-0.5
35.3%
away_+0.5
64.7%
home_+0.5
57.7%
away_-0.5
42.3%
home_+1.5
77.4%
away_-1.5
22.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
45.1%
under_20.5
54.9%
over_22.5
33.2%
under_22.5
66.8%
over_24.5
23.2%
under_24.5
76.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
47.6%
under_9.5
52.4%
over_11.5
30.7%
under_11.5
69.3%
over_13.5
18.0%
under_13.5
82.0%
team_away
over_9.5
54.6%
under_9.5
45.5%
over_11.5
37.3%
under_11.5
62.7%
over_13.5
23.4%
under_13.5
76.6%
most
home
41.8%
draw
6.6%
away
51.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.1%
away_+3.5
75.9%
home_-0.5
41.8%
away_+0.5
58.2%
home_+2.5
61.5%
away_-2.5
38.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
5.6%
no
94.4%
home
yes
2.4%
no
97.6%
away
yes
3.3%
no
96.7%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
Ein Frankfurt