Bundesliga
Freiburg vs 
Schalke 04 Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.7% for over 2.5 to 15.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.4%. On the card count, Schalke 04 are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.3% | 70.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.5% | 84.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.5%
24.1%
56.7%
29.7%
Card handicap
| Freiburg line | Freiburg | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.4% | 82.6% |
| -0.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| +0.5 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| +1.5 | 76.3% | 23.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.2% | 73.8% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Freiburg vs Schalke 04. The model leans toward Schalke 04 for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
48.4%Over 3.5 cards21.0%Any red card50.5%Freiburg over 1.5 cards56.7%Schalke 04 over 1.5 cards36.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Freiburg over 1.5 cards sits at 50.5% and Schalke 04 at 56.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.0% (Freiburg 4.0%, Schalke 04 17.8%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.4% for Freiburg vs Schalke 04.
Will there be a red card in Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
The model rates a red card for either side at 21.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
The model rates Schalke 04 to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
