AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Pro League
Lommel SKLommel SKLLDWD
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1117:30UK
GentGentWDWWW

Lommel SK vs Gent cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards44.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lommel SK vs Gent. Slightly more cards are projected for Gent for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 65.7% 34.3%
3.5 cards 44.0% 56.0%
4.5 cards 25.6% 74.5%
5.5 cards 13.0% 87.0%

Who picks up more cards

Lommel SK
27.7%
Level
21.7%
Gent
50.6%

Team cards lines

Lommel SK

Over 1.5
41.3%
Over 2.5
17.1%

Gent

Over 1.5
58.6%
Over 2.5
31.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Lommel SK's; Gent gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Lommel SK line Lommel SK Gent
-1.5 12.3% 87.7%
-0.5 27.7% 72.3%
+0.5 49.4% 50.6%
+1.5 70.8% 29.2%

Red card

Any red card8.6%
Lommel SK red card4.1%
Gent red card4.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 51.3% 48.7%
22.5 fouls 36.6% 63.4%
24.5 fouls 24.0% 76.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Gent E. Lambrechts 3 5.3 2.3

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Lommel SKLommel SK

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Lommel SK at home and Gent away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

GentGent
Statistic
Lommel SK
Gent
Yellow cards per game
1.1
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.3
1.0

Matches with card data
0
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 44.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 65.7% for over 2.5 to 13.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.0%. Between the two sides, Gent are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.6%, with a level count at 21.7%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Lommel SK over 1.5 cards sits at 41.3% and Gent at 58.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.6% (Lommel SK 4.1%, Gent 4.7%). Gent’s most frequent referee this season, E. Lambrechts, has averaged 5.3 cards a game across 3 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

44.0%Over 3.5 cards
8.6%Any red card
50.6%Most cards: Gent
41.3%Lommel SK over 1.5 cards
58.6%Gent over 1.5 cards
36.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherE. Lambrechts, Gent’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.3 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianGent are the pick to collect more cards at 50.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Lommel SKLommel SK

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GentGent
Statistic
Lommel SK
Gent
fouls per game
7.7
10.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Lommel SK vs Gent?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 44.0% for Lommel SK vs Gent.
Will there be a red card in Lommel SK vs Gent?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lommel SK vs Gent?
The model rates Gent to pick up more cards at 50.6%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Pro LeagueLommel SK fixtures and statsGent fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.