Ligue 1
Lille vs 
Le Havre Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 54.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Lille have averaged 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Le Havre 0.8 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.9% for over 2.5 and 72.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Lille have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Le Havre in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.3% | 8.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 75.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 11.1% | 88.9% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.4% | 95.7% |
Team goal lines
81.4%
50.2%
23.9%
56.2%
20.1%
5.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 76.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 6.8% | 93.2% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.8% | 83.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Lille goals scored per game0.8Lille goals conceded per game40.0%Lille Over 2.5 rate0.8Lille 1st-half goals per game0.8Le Havre goals scored per game1.4Le Havre goals conceded per game40.0%Le Havre Over 2.5 rate0.0Le Havre 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
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5+
In-depth analysis
46.3%Both Teams to Score45.9%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 45.9% for three or more goals and 72.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Lille favoured at 59.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Lille to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Lille 3 · 1 draws · Le Havre 1 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lille vs Le Havre?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 45.9% for Lille vs Le Havre.
Will there be a first-half goal in Lille vs Le Havre?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 60.6%.
How often have Lille gone over 2.5 recently?
Lille have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Le Havre in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,782 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
