Ligue 1
Lille vs 
Le Havre Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 49.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 61.8% for over 22.5 to 26.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.1%. Head to head on shots, Lille are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.0%, with a level count at 5.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.0% | 74.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.9%
58.9%
42.4%
49.5%
31.5%
17.9%
Shot handicap
| Lille line | Lille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| -2.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| -0.5 | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| +0.5 | 71.7% | 28.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 59.9% | 40.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 35.3% | 64.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
6.5 / 4.2
7.0 / 8.0
This season (2026/27)
15.0Le Havre shots per game14.8Le Havre shots faced per game7.0Le Havre first-half shots8.0Le Havre second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Lille.
In-depth analysis
49.1%Over 24.5 shots58.9%Lille over 12.5 shots31.5%Le Havre over 12.5 shots59.9%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Lille over 12.5 shots sits at 58.9% and Le Havre at 31.5%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Lille vs Le Havre?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 49.1% for Lille vs Le Havre.
Which team will have more shots in Lille vs Le Havre?
The model rates Lille to take more shots at 66.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
