AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 11 Oct 2026

Segunda División
Las PalmasLas PalmasLDWLL
Full time2-2Sun, 4 Oct 20264/1017:30UK
ValladolidValladolidDWLDW

Las Palmas 2-2 Valladolid cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined71.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined28.6%

Result

Las Palmas2-2Valladolid
7 yellow cardsLas Palmas 3, Valladolid 4
0 red cardsLas Palmas 0, Valladolid 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 71.4% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 76.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards71.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Las Palmas vs Valladolid. Slightly more cards are projected for Valladolid for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 86.3% 13.7%
3.5 cards 71.4% 28.6%
4.5 cards 53.4% 46.6%
5.5 cards 35.9% 64.1%

Who picks up more cards

Las Palmas
30.6%
Level
18.1%
Valladolid
51.3%

Team cards lines

Las Palmas

Over 1.5
62.8%
Over 2.5
35.9%

Valladolid

Over 1.5
75.6%
Over 2.5
51.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Las Palmas's; Valladolid gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Las Palmas line Las Palmas Valladolid
-1.5 16.4% 83.6%
-0.5 30.6% 69.4%
+0.5 48.7% 51.3%
+1.5 66.8% 33.2%

Red card

Any red card23.4%
Las Palmas red card9.5%
Valladolid red card15.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 87.1% 12.9%
22.5 fouls 77.9% 22.1%
24.5 fouls 66.4% 33.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 71.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 86.3% for over 2.5 to 35.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.4%. On the card count, Valladolid are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.3%, with a level count at 18.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Las Palmas over 1.5 cards sits at 62.8% and Valladolid at 75.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.4% (Las Palmas 9.5%, Valladolid 15.4%). This season Las Palmas have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Valladolid 3.1.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

71.4%Over 3.5 cards
23.4%Any red card
51.3%Most cards: Valladolid
62.8%Las Palmas over 1.5 cards
75.6%Valladolid over 1.5 cards
77.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 71.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 23.4%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianValladolid are the pick to collect more cards at 51.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 53.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Las PalmasLas Palmas

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ValladolidValladolid
Statistic
Las Palmas
Valladolid
cards per game
2.3
3.1

fouls per game
12.0
13.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 71.4% for Las Palmas vs Valladolid.
Will there be a red card in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 23.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Before kickoff, the model rated Valladolid to pick up more cards at 51.3%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónLas Palmas fixtures and statsValladolid fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.