AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 11 Oct 2026

Segunda División
Las PalmasLas PalmasLDWLL
Full time2-2Sun, 4 Oct 20264/1017:30UK
ValladolidValladolidDWLDW

Las Palmas 2-2 Valladolid corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined58.5%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined41.5%

Result

Las Palmas2-2Valladolid
9 cornersLas Palmas 3, Valladolid 6
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 58.5% and it landed (9 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 9.5 corners41.5%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Las Palmas.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 66.4% 33.6%
8.5 corners 53.9% 46.1%
9.5 corners 41.5% 58.5%
10.5 corners 30.3% 69.7%
11.5 corners 21.0% 79.0%
12.5 corners 13.8% 86.2%

Who wins the corner count

Las Palmas
52.2%
Level
11.3%
Valladolid
36.5%

Team corners lines

Las Palmas

Over 3.5
68.2%
Over 4.5
51.7%
Over 5.5
36.3%

Valladolid

Over 3.5
57.3%
Over 4.5
39.8%
Over 5.5
25.4%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Las Palmas's; Valladolid gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Las Palmas line Las Palmas Valladolid
-1.5 40.7% 59.3%
-0.5 52.2% 47.8%
+0.5 63.5% 36.5%
+1.5 73.7% 26.3%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 41.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 66.4% for over 7.5 to 13.8% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.9%. Head to head on corners, Las Palmas are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.2%, with a level count at 11.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Las Palmas over 4.5 corners sits at 51.7% and Valladolid at 39.8%. This season Las Palmas have averaged 4.3 corners won a game and Valladolid 3.3.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

41.5%Over 9.5 corners
52.2%Most corners: Las Palmas
51.7%Las Palmas over 4.5 corners
39.8%Valladolid over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 41.5% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderLas Palmas are the pick to win the corner count at 52.2%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 8.5 corners: over sits at 53.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Las PalmasLas Palmas

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

ValladolidValladolid
Statistic
Las Palmas
Valladolid
corners won per game
4.3
3.3

corners conceded per game
5.3
3.9

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 41.5% for Las Palmas vs Valladolid.
Which team will win the corner count in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
Before kickoff, the model rated Las Palmas to win the corner count at 52.2%, with a level count at 11.3%.
How many corners do Las Palmas and Valladolid average this season?
Las Palmas have won 4.3 corners a game this season and Valladolid 3.3.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Segunda DivisiónLas Palmas fixtures and statsValladolid fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.