AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Segunda División
Las PalmasLas PalmasLLDLL
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:30UK
Sociedad BSociedad BLLLLL

Las Palmas 1-0 Sociedad B cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined72.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined27.2%

Result

Las Palmas1-0Sociedad B
6 yellow cardsLas Palmas 3, Sociedad B 3
0 red cardsLas Palmas 0, Sociedad B 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 72.8% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 85.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards72.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Las Palmas vs Sociedad B. Slightly more cards are projected for Sociedad B for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 87.1% 12.9%
3.5 cards 72.8% 27.2%
4.5 cards 55.1% 45.0%
5.5 cards 37.5% 62.5%

Who picks up more cards

Las Palmas
31.8%
Level
18.0%
Sociedad B
50.2%

Team cards lines

Las Palmas

Over 1.5
64.8%
Over 2.5
38.0%

Sociedad B

Over 1.5
75.8%
Over 2.5
51.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Las Palmas's; Sociedad B gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Las Palmas line Las Palmas Sociedad B
-1.5 17.4% 82.6%
-0.5 31.8% 68.2%
+0.5 49.8% 50.2%
+1.5 67.7% 32.3%

Red card

Any red card14.6%
Las Palmas red card3.6%
Sociedad B red card11.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 89.1% 10.9%
22.5 fouls 80.8% 19.2%
24.5 fouls 69.8% 30.2%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 72.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 87.1% for over 2.5 to 37.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. Between the two sides, Sociedad B are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.2%, with a level count at 18.0%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Las Palmas over 1.5 cards sits at 64.8% and Sociedad B at 75.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.6% (Las Palmas 3.6%, Sociedad B 11.4%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

72.8%Over 3.5 cards
14.6%Any red card
50.2%Most cards: Sociedad B
64.8%Las Palmas over 1.5 cards
75.8%Sociedad B over 1.5 cards
80.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 72.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.6%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianSociedad B are the pick to collect more cards at 50.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 55.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Las Palmas vs Sociedad B?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.8% for Las Palmas vs Sociedad B.
Will there be a red card in Las Palmas vs Sociedad B?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Las Palmas vs Sociedad B?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sociedad B to pick up more cards at 50.2%, with a level count at 18.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónLas Palmas fixtures and statsSociedad B fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.