AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
HullHullDDLDL
Full time1-1Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1014:00UK12°C · Cloudy
BrentfordBrentfordDDWDL

Hull 1-1 Brentford cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.4%

Result

Hull1-1Brentford
1 yellow cardsHull 0, Brentford 1
0 red cardsHull 0, Brentford 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.6% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 86.1% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Rob Jones

Recorded match referee.

Rob Jones in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 247 7
Goals 2.55 3.43
Yellow cards 3.48 2.71
Red cards 0.08 0.00
Corners 10.0 9.3
Fouls 24.4 26.4
Both teams scored 49% 57%
Over 2.5 goals 47% 57%
Home wins 45% 29%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Hull vs Brentford 1-1 2 Yes 1 0 11 19
18 Oct 2026 Brighton vs Crystal Palace 5-0 5 No 3 0 13 24
20 Sep 2026 Manchester City vs Sunderland 5-3 8 Yes 1 0 11 28
13 Sep 2026 Sheffield United vs WolvesChampionship 0-1 1 No 3 0 9 27
5 Sep 2026 Newcastle vs Bournemouth 2-2 4 Yes 5 0 7 36
28 Aug 2026 Wrexham vs BirminghamChampionship 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 9 22
22 Aug 2026 Nottingham Forest vs Leeds 0-1 1 No 3 0 5 29
24 May 2026 Fulham vs Newcastle 2-0 2 No 4 0 12 19
3 May 2026 Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace 3-0 3 No 2 0 8 21
25 Apr 2026 Birmingham vs Bristol CityChampionship 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 11 18

Rob Jones referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Hull vs Brentford. It tips Brentford for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.7% 25.3%
3.5 cards 54.6% 45.4%
4.5 cards 35.1% 64.9%
5.5 cards 19.9% 80.1%

Who picks up more cards

Hull
38.7%
Level
21.0%
Brentford
40.3%

Team cards lines

Hull

Over 1.5
57.4%
Over 2.5
30.4%

Brentford

Over 1.5
58.6%
Over 2.5
31.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Hull's; Brentford gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Hull line Hull Brentford
-1.5 20.8% 79.1%
-0.5 38.7% 61.3%
+0.5 59.7% 40.3%
+1.5 77.9% 22.1%

Red card

Any red card13.9%
Hull red card1.2%
Brentford red card12.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 49.0% 51.0%
22.5 fouls 32.9% 67.1%
24.5 fouls 19.9% 80.1%
HullHull

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Hull at home and Brentford away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BrentfordBrentford
Statistic
Hull
Brentford
Yellow cards per game
3.6
2.2

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
1.6

Matches with card data
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 54.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.7% for over 2.5 to 19.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.6%. On the card count, Brentford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.3%, with a level count at 21.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Hull over 1.5 cards sits at 57.4% and Brentford at 58.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.9% (Hull 1.2%, Brentford 12.8%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

54.6%Over 3.5 cards
13.9%Any red card
40.3%Most cards: Brentford
57.4%Hull over 1.5 cards
58.6%Brentford over 1.5 cards
32.9%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianBrentford are the pick to collect more cards at 40.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
HullHull

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BrentfordBrentford
Statistic
Hull
Brentford
fouls per game
10.0
14.4

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Hull vs Brentford?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.6% for Hull vs Brentford.
Will there be a red card in Hull vs Brentford?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Hull vs Brentford?
Before kickoff, the model rated Brentford to pick up more cards at 40.3%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Premier LeagueHull fixtures and statsBrentford fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.