AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga
GuimaraesGuimaraesDLDLW
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1118:00UK
PortoPortoWWWWW

Guimaraes vs Porto cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined68.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined31.3%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards68.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Guimaraes vs Porto. It tips Guimaraes for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 84.5% 15.5%
3.5 cards 68.7% 31.3%
4.5 cards 50.2% 49.8%
5.5 cards 32.9% 67.1%

Who picks up more cards

Guimaraes
41.2%
Level
19.0%
Porto
39.9%

Team cards lines

Guimaraes

Over 1.5
68.2%
Over 2.5
42.0%

Porto

Over 1.5
67.4%
Over 2.5
41.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Guimaraes's; Porto gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Guimaraes line Guimaraes Porto
-1.5 24.3% 75.7%
-0.5 41.2% 58.8%
+0.5 60.1% 39.9%
+1.5 76.8% 23.2%

Red card

Any red card17.0%
Guimaraes red card12.7%
Porto red card5.0%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 84.3% 15.7%
22.5 fouls 74.7% 25.3%
24.5 fouls 63.1% 36.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Porto Miguel Nogueira 2 3.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

GuimaraesGuimaraes

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Guimaraes at home and Porto away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

PortoPorto
Statistic
Guimaraes
Porto
Cards per game at this venue
1.3
1.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.0
1.7

Yellow cards per game
2.7
1.1

First-half yellow cards per game
1.1
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.6
0.7

Matches with more cards than the opponent
42.9%
28.6%

Matches with card data
7
7
Red cards this season
1
0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,078Matches graded

In 10,263 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.6% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 58.7%✓ 56.2%✓ 59.8%✓ 75.9%✗ 61.0%✓ 62.7%✓ 62.4%✗ 57.2%✗ 52.3%✓ 58.0%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Under 3.5 58.7%Miss
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Over 3.5 56.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Over 3.5 59.8%Hit
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Over 3.5 75.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Over 3.5 61.0%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 68.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 84.5% for over 2.5 to 32.9% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.2%. Between the two sides, Guimaraes are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 19.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Guimaraes over 1.5 cards sits at 68.2% and Porto at 67.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.0% (Guimaraes 12.7%, Porto 5.0%). Porto’s most frequent referee this season, Miguel Nogueira, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Guimaraes have averaged 2.9 cards a game and Porto 1.1.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

68.7%Over 3.5 cards
17.0%Any red card
41.2%Most cards: Guimaraes
68.2%Guimaraes over 1.5 cards
67.4%Porto over 1.5 cards
74.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 68.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherMiguel Nogueira, Porto’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.0%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianGuimaraes are the pick to collect more cards at 41.2%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
GuimaraesGuimaraes

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

PortoPorto
Statistic
Guimaraes
Porto
cards per game
2.9
1.1

fouls per game
15.8
14.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Guimaraes vs Porto?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 68.7% for Guimaraes vs Porto.
Will there be a red card in Guimaraes vs Porto?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Guimaraes vs Porto?
The model rates Guimaraes to pick up more cards at 41.2%, with a level count at 19.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.