FamalicaoFamalicaoDDWLW
AroucaAroucaDLDWWFamalicao vs Arouca cards prediction
Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Model read
A clear lean on the model's numbers.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Strong
Over 3.5 cards73.6%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Famalicao vs Arouca. It tips Arouca for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.6% | 12.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 73.6% | 26.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 38.5% | 61.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Famalicao
AroucaTeam cards lines
Famalicao
Arouca
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Famalicao's; Arouca gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Famalicao line | Famalicao | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.3% | 81.7% |
| -0.5 | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| +0.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| +1.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.9% | 15.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 63.9% | 36.1% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Famalicao at home and Arouca away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 73.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.6% for over 2.5 to 38.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.1%. On the card count, Arouca are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.1%, with a level count at 18.0%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Famalicao over 1.5 cards sits at 66.2% and Arouca at 75.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 29.3% (Famalicao 17.9%, Arouca 13.9%).
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Will there be a red card in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Which team will pick up more cards in Famalicao vs Arouca?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
