AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 2 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga
Sp LisbonSp LisbonDDWLW
Sat, 7 Nov 20267/1120:30UK
MoreirenseMoreirenseWDLWW

Sporting CP vs Moreirense cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined68.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined31.2%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards68.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense. Slightly more cards are projected for Moreirense for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 84.6% 15.4%
3.5 cards 68.8% 31.2%
4.5 cards 50.4% 49.6%
5.5 cards 33.1% 66.9%

Who picks up more cards

Sp Lisbon
32.6%
Level
18.6%
Moreirense
48.8%

Team cards lines

Sp Lisbon

Over 1.5
62.4%
Over 2.5
35.5%

Moreirense

Over 1.5
72.7%
Over 2.5
47.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sp Lisbon's; Moreirense gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sp Lisbon line Sp Lisbon Moreirense
-1.5 17.7% 82.3%
-0.5 32.6% 67.4%
+0.5 51.2% 48.8%
+1.5 69.3% 30.7%

Red card

Any red card16.4%
Sp Lisbon red card3.3%
Moreirense red card13.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 83.3% 16.7%
22.5 fouls 73.4% 26.6%
24.5 fouls 61.5% 38.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Sp Lisbon D. Silva 2 9.0 4.5
Sp Lisbon J. Pinheiro 2 2.5 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Sp LisbonSp Lisbon

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sp Lisbon at home and Moreirense away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MoreirenseMoreirense
Statistic
Sp Lisbon
Moreirense
Cards per game at this venue
3.0
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.3
1.3

Yellow cards per game
2.4
2.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.5
1.1

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.9
1.4

Matches with more cards than the opponent
28.6%
·

Matches with card data
7
4
Red cards this season
1
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
51,078Matches graded

In 10,263 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.6% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 2 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 58.7%✓ 56.2%✓ 59.8%✓ 75.9%✗ 61.0%✓ 62.7%✓ 62.4%✗ 57.2%✗ 52.3%✓ 58.0%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Liverpool vs Arsenal2026-11-01Under 3.5 58.7%Miss
Union Berlin vs FC Koln2026-11-01Over 3.5 56.2%Hit
Ein Frankfurt vs Hamburg2026-11-01Over 3.5 59.8%Hit
Getafe vs Sevilla2026-11-01Over 3.5 75.9%Hit
Santander vs Real Madrid2026-11-01Over 3.5 61.0%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 68.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 84.6% for over 2.5 to 33.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.4%. Head to head on cards, Moreirense are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 18.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Sp Lisbon over 1.5 cards sits at 62.4% and Moreirense at 72.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.4% (Sp Lisbon 3.3%, Moreirense 13.6%). Sp Lisbon’s most frequent referee this season, D. Silva, has averaged 9.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

68.8%Over 3.5 cards
16.4%Any red card
48.8%Most cards: Moreirense
62.4%Sp Lisbon over 1.5 cards
72.7%Moreirense over 1.5 cards
73.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 68.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherD. Silva, Sp Lisbon’s most frequent referee this season, averages 9.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianMoreirense are the pick to collect more cards at 48.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
Sp LisbonSp Lisbon

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MoreirenseMoreirense
Statistic
Sp Lisbon
Moreirense
cards per game
2.7
·

fouls per game
11.6
13.8

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 68.8% for Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense.
Will there be a red card in Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sp Lisbon vs Moreirense?
The model rates Moreirense to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 18.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.